At election time, perceptions indicate which way the wind is blowing. Independent opinion polls go some way at measuring perceptions – but their accuracy is blurred by margins of error and by the reservations of the enigmatic “don’t knows”.
The competing political parties conduct their own private surveys, but they keep their findings close to their chest. But the way they implement and modify their strategies during the election campaign gives a good enough indication as to how they react to electoral perceptions.
This time round, the Malta Labour Party rooted for change on the basis of a plan elaborated during long months of consultation with a broad segment of civil society. The MLP strategy has been clear and unmistakable. Above all, for better or for worse, it has been consistent.
The party line was to give a new lease of life to the economy by giving incentives in the form of relief from an oppressive tax regime, and to provide space and inducement to the productive forces. MLP spokesmen harped on the importance of rooting out incompetence and corruption
All of this has been, and is still being, addressed to the broad segment of the electorate that has fallen back in the past years.
The Nationalist Party has been sensitive to this approach, which laid heavy emphasis on capricious government overspending and various episodes associating ministers with charges of maladministration and corruption, real or perceived.
Its initial response was to present a new party image – gonzipn – with Gonzi, in shining armour, riding a white charger, and all the ministers out of sight.
This gave more shine to the Gonzi image. It belittled his ministers and became a source of embarrassment to the party. It certainly did nothing to counter the electorate’s perception that so many families and citizens have lost ground during Gonzi’s watch.
In the case of electors who have been crushed by taxation, or who have had reason to react against the arrogance of ministers and public entities such as MEPA, perceptions bordered on convictions.
The PN grandees first focused on this segment and showered it with promises of relief by way of hundreds of new proposals. The shift was noticeable and the pressure intense. But there has been yet another shift in strategy.
It seems to be a do-or-die approach, and is negative in nature rather than positive. It takes the form of a scare campaign, targeted at the sheep that strayed away from the flock, and to the undecided.
The slogan emphasises that “every abstention and every vote for Alternattiva Demokratika means a vote for the MLP”.
There will be many who will interpret this as an unspoken attempt to recoup the stray sheep. As such, it is likely to be seen as a damage limitation exercise, rather than one that seeks to win new hearts and minds.
If this is a good reading of the evolving situation during the last fortnight of the election campaign, the available evidence is as good as any opinion poll.
Electors with a mind of their own are free to savour the evidence.
In the final analysis, it is their reading of the evidence that matters.
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