The year that we have just started will see this government surpass the halfway mark. Once it is over, the anticipation of the coming election starts building up, and possible dates will start to be bandied about. In a country where political polarisation is at the extreme, and with an opposition dying to be in power after more than 25 years of misery, it is to be expected.

So 2010 will be a year of transition, a year in which the government in office will aim to start reversing the negative image that has been building ever since Lawrence Gonzi took the Nationalist Party to an unprecedented third consecutive election win in March 2008.

It is common knowledge that all governments pass through difficult times and a bout of unpopularity in the first half of their term in office. Usually, the more difficult decisions are taken before the halfway mark, allowing a lot of time for them to be absorbed, if not forgotten, by the population by the time the next election looms.

This time round, the first half of this government’s term has been even more difficult because of the financial crisis that has hit the world, and consequently Malta too. The halfway mark of this term will more or less coincide with the expected upturn in world economy, which as a result will serve to give this government the push that it is looking for.

The Nationalist Party knows that, if the 2008 election win was a miracle, a fourth consecutive victory is almost impossible. Even if it had to do everything right, even if no mistakes are committed, its chances for another term in office are down to a bare minimum. And, even if the opposition is still not up to standard, even if its new leader continues to show signs that he still needs to gain experience, logic says that Labour will be returned to power.

It’s the way things work. Labour knows that its voter base is bigger than that of the Nationalists, who have to sweat to first of all convince their own supporters to cast their vote, and secondly to convince the floating voters to prefer them to the PL. With the PN in power for 24 out of 26 years by the time the next election is held, it will be much easier for the PL to win the backing of the voters who change allegiance from one election to another.

Labour should, perhaps, just sit back and watch. The more it allows the PN to keep trudging along and be arrogant in its behaviour, the more Labour has the chance to win handsomely. The more the PL speaks up, the more the chances that it shows that the new leadership has not really led to a change of strategy, thought or plan, and this puts Labour’s victory at risk.

When the next election is held, Labour will be the favourites to win, no matter what. It would be like Manchester United playing against Leeds last Sunday – the Red Devils were expected to win, just like the PL is expected to beat the PN in 2013 or thereabouts. But, on Sunday, Leeds did manage to beat Manchester United, and this should serve as an eye-opener for Labour too.

Unlike Leeds with Manchester United, the PN is in the same league with the PL and therefore, in spite of being the underdogs and off-form, they can still cause an upset when the time comes.

Labour were also supposed to have won in 2008. But they ended up as losers because they committed too many own goals in the latter stages of the campaign. As it happened, the PN recovered the lost ground in time to pip the PL at the final whistle.

As things stand now, Labour, in spite of their own difficulties and in spite of still not offering the credibility of an alternative government, are in the lead. But even one week is an eternity in politics, let alone three years.

So many things can change.