The reports of unrest in Libya are sketchy to say the least. The internet was shut down yesterday, but stories have filtered through the AFP – one of the few agencies out there – that there were protests the night before in a town called al-Bayda. Protesters claim to have pushed security forces out of the town, but nothing has yet been confirmed.

It was also alleged that ordinary citizens have been the recipients of viral texts, telling them not to take part in protests. Malta has been worried. Tunisia did not pose much of a problem as it is seen as a relative minnow in terms of clout in the North African region.

Bahrain and Egypt are thousands of miles away, as are the Yemen, Syria, Jordan and Iran. While there uprisings there might have indirect repercussions on Malta, there will be no direct impact.

The government will also be closely monitoring the Suez Canal situation in Egypt. Workers there are protesting about low pay, but have vowed to allow traffic through unhindered. If that situation changes, as we have already pointed out in a leading article some weeks back, then there could be serious repercussions.

If Malta’s oil were to come from the East, and the Canal was closed, then we could be looking at hundreds of thousands of euros in extra costs to have the fuel shipped round the Horn of Africa and into the Mediterranean.

But back to Libya. The Maghreb nation is ruled with an iron fist by Muammar Gaddafi and the gripes of the people are the same as they were in Tunisia and Egypt – low pay, autocratic despotism and unemployment. They are fronted by and educated young generation demanding change.

Irony of ironies, Gaddafi has also been quoted as saying that he wants to join the protests himself, as he is ‘merely a revolutionary with no power’. But the world knows that this is not the case.

Up to the time of this page going to print, there have been reported shootings and beatings, but nothing has been confirmed. But one can rest assure, the proverbial will hit the fan.

While this all worries the Maltese government because of instability in the region, there is also the very real danger of a mass exodus from Libyan shores in boats. We saw it happen with Tunisians landing in their thousands on Lampedusa. Thankfully, we were spared. But will we be so lucky if Libyans flee in their thousands? Perhaps not.

There is also the added worry of commercial interests. There are many Maltese companies who have invested in Libya over the years and there are also a great deal of Maltese workers who earn their bread and butter just across the water.

The potential of fallout from the Libya protests is worrying, not only to Malta, but to Italy and the rest of Europe as a whole. We always did say this would be a domino effect. We said that if Egypt went, it would spark the rest of the Maghreb into action. But what now? Algeria, Morocco and Mauretania will probably follow suit… but what happens if it now spreads to the South, Central Africa where despotism, civil war and murder are the order of the day? These are dangerous times, to say the least.