The Malta Independent 19 May 2024, Sunday
View E-Paper

Lightning Strikes twice

Malta Independent Thursday, 12 May 2011, 00:00 Last update: about 13 years ago

As was predicted in a leading article published in this newspaper some months back, the finances of Greece dropped off the radar as Libya, migration, the faltering Arab Spring and the Royal wedding dominated headlines and airwaves.

We had said that the problem would be back with us, and worse than ever. The latest results from the beleaguered country is that instead of an austerity inspired turnaround to growth, public debt has exploded and is believed to be approaching the 160% of Gross Domestic Product mark. Maastricht stipulates a 60% benchmark.

Moreover, Greece has not done enough to reassure the markets of its creditworthiness and is simply too much of a risk for lenders to allow commercial loans. Of course, the Greek government has again approached the European Union, hands upturned and cupped together for more alms.

It simply cannot be done. During the rafts of summits in which the bailout issue was discussed, the ECB went from a guarantor, to a lender, to a bigger lender and has now become an open tap.

If the eurozone countries continue to finance Greece’s apathy and refusal to tackle its debt and fiscal problems, the whole currency will come crashing down. First it will lose value and it will become unsustainable.

Not only has the European tax payer (yes you) forked out tax monies to be used for the bailout package, but s/he has also subsidised the rate at which Greece is borrowing from the ECB. Now, the Greeks want European tax payers to fork out more money. We said from the start that Greece never had a cat in hell’s chance to pay off the original loan. We are vindicated. Not only can the Greeks not afford to pay this money back, they have fallen further into the mire and now need to ‘borrow’ even more cash. It simply cannot be done.

There are three scenarios which can solve the problem – none of which are appealing, and none of which are likely to ever be adopted by Europe. The first is devalue the euro. It would fix the problem, but it will simply never happen. This would mean telling German and French and Maltese citizens that their hard earned cash in times of strife will be worth less, just to help the Greeks pay for their theft, corruption and lies. It would also severely impact on international trading (though it might boost exports).

The second is to allow Greece to default, still as a eurozone member. This will allow for restructuring of banks and debt through internationally accepted mechanisms – but it would also severely dent the credibility and the strength of the euro as a currency. It would affect the whole of Europe – and badly. The third, and perhaps most attractive option, is to boot Greece out of the eurozone, allowing them to recreate the drachma, drastically reduce its value, create internal inflation and allow masses of cheap tourists in to flood the economy with much needed cash. This is perhaps the one possibility (aside from continuing to play for time) which could work to everyone’s benefit.

But in all likelihood, the EU will continue to do nothing. The ECB, once President Trichet steps down, will become even weaker, giving in to demands for more and more cash to literally go down the toilet. The Greek government does not have the strength of character to implement harsh austerity measures. The Greek people have been living in a cashflow delusion for too long now. They are unlikely to accept taxation that far outstrips public spending for at least another 30 years (and that is a best case scenario). This is, a very real crisis and it threatens to engulf us all. This newspaper has always said there can be no fiscal union without political union. So what is it to be? Back to individual countries or a Federal USE? Either way, continued inaction and playing for time is going to slam us into a brick wall, face first.

  • don't miss