The Malta Independent 8 May 2024, Wednesday
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Markets: Gold Is king

Malta Independent Monday, 22 August 2011, 00:00 Last update: about 11 years ago

Investors continue to flock to gold, sending it to the latest of a series of records, as fears about recession in the world’s major economies infected financial markets.

The metal soared as high as $1,881.40 an ounce. It’s been on a tear this summer, rising more than 15 % in August alone. In the same three weeks, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has fallen about 12 %.

As an investment, the metal has climbed because of investors’ concern about the uncertain state of the global economy, diving stock markets and moves by central banks around the world to weaken their currencies.

Central banks in developing countries are also swapping out major currencies for gold in their reserves.

At this point, analysts say that the reason why gold keeps climbing cannot be explained just by the fear factor. The simple fact that it has kept rising in an otherwise turbulent market is part of the metal’s appeal. The recent surge “lacks a lot of explanation,” said Jon Nadler, an analyst for Kitco Bullion Dealers, and that, to him, signals danger of a deep reversal as it approaches $2,000 an ounce.

But analysts have been predicting a top in the market for months only to see gold’s climb accelerate.

The last time gold was worth less than $1,000 an ounce was October 2009. It gained steadily from there, and then burst higher this summer, crossing $1,600 an ounce for the first time in mid-July; three weeks later it was worth more than $1,700 an ounce, and 10 days later, it passed $1,800 an ounce.

Still, these record highs remain below gold’s 1980 peak of $850 which, when adjusted for inflation, equals about $2,400 in today’s dollars.

That record could be knocked out if investors keep betting that gold will protect them if the US and Europe fall back into recession, which could sink stock prices.

Several major banks and economists have recently sounded warnings on the risk of a new downturn.

JPMorgan Chase cut its forecast steeply for growth in the US, the world’s biggest economy, to a measly 1 % in the last three months of the year from an already weak 2.5 %.

So what would $2,000 an ounce gold mean for shoppers? Gold is used in industrial products and mainstream consumer goods. With every fresh high, consumers will have to pay more for everything from engagement rings to crowns for their teeth.

Big jewelry chains already raised prices this summer, citing the rising costs of gold and diamonds. And the surge in gold is affecting gold-producing countries, even minor exporters.

Police in Guyana said that the surge had triggered killings, robberies and other crimes across the South American country. Venezuela said earlier this week that it was nationalizing its gold industry and bringing home its $11 billion in gold reserves. It seems that as ever, in times of crisis, Gold is king, not cash.

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