There are only 100 days to go before the US pulls out of Iraq, but still, conflict rages in the south. It is understood that the Iraqi government is trying to secure the placement of US troops post-pullout, and this is highly indicative of the problem which the country now faces.

But in a country where soldiers still apparently sleep with their boots on, to ensure that they do not incur injury if they are suddenly exposed to rocket or other heavy arms fire, the Shiite insurgency is still very much alive and kicking and does not bode well for the future.

The major problems lie in the marshy south. This territory plays a vital role in combating the militias and protecting US convoys heading south on their way home. But the challenges they face hint at the wider problems still facing Iraq.

Weapons’ smugglers use the southern marshes to hide amongst reeds and other features as they elude the poorly-paid, ill-equipped and unmotivated Iraqi guards. Once the smugglers get past this very porous border, they fan out across to supply the Shiite militias.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is vulnerable. Despite his dependence on Sadrist support, he also seeks to negotiate with the US to have troops stay on beyond December. The Sadrists, of course, are opposed to this and view the US troops as nothing more than an occupation force. They are not stupid either, and have pledged to stop attacks on the US as it packs up for home.

The Iraqi Army has launched stepped-up patrols, checkpoints and operations designed to hinder militiamen, and August saw a marked improvement in security around the country. So far, no Americans have been killed in combat in Iraq this September.

Some believe that this is due to stepped-up military operations. Others believe that threats against Iran have done the job. Others believe that this is the result of Al-Sadr’s declaration not to attack troops. The more optimistic believe that the country is finally settling down. But the crux of the matter is whether or not the Iraqi Army and security forces will be able to police the country and maintain law and order once the US soldiers leave. Of course, there will be elements in Iraq which will want to assume the ‘title’ of liberator once the US forces leave. Whether that same ‘liberator’ will seek to topple the Iraqi government is another matter entirely. Iraq’s administration is weak and riddled with infighting and corruption. It truly is a recipe for disaster.