Ahead of a weekend offering the most intriguing line-up of quarter-finals ever at a Rugby World Cup, England manager Martin Johnson seemed to be giving every team bar one a shot at the title.
“I think you can see seven of them getting there,” Johnson said as he prepared his squad for today’s match with longtime rivals France. He’s only discounting Argentina’s prospects of upsetting New Zealand in the last of four weekend matches.
The knockout round kicks off with Ireland against Wales in an all-Celtic clash in Wellington, followed by the Anglo-Gallic grudge match at Eden Park.
Defending champions South Africa are up against Australia tomorrow, with the winner continuing its quest to become the first triple World Cup winner.
After Ireland’s upset pool win over Tri-Nations champions Australia, a neatly divided knockout round means a team from each hemisphere will make the final. On the one side, there’s the southern heavyweights ranked Nos. 1-3 in the world - New Zealand, South Africa and Australia - along with 2007 semi-finalists Argentina.
The other side contains only one former champion, 2003 winner England. France have lost two finals, and also lost semi-finals in the last two editions to England. The French have been in complete disarray in a pool stage campaign that included a thumping loss to New Zealand, a shocking upset defeat to Tonga and two scrappy wins over Canada and Japan.
That actually makes them a more dangerous proposition for an England team under Johnson, the 2003-winning captain. Asked if the World Cup was still a wide-open competition, he said: “I think so. I think more than ever.”
Wales have never surpassed their run to the 1987 semi-finals, while the Irish have never reached the semis. Yet the Celtic teams have played some of the most entertaining rugby of the tournament. The Welsh backs have been a revelation with freedom to run.
Ireland came into the World Cup after a dreadful, winless series of warm-ups but, after pounding Australia’s forward pack into submission on a slippery night at Eden Park, the veteran squad has revealed a possible pathway through the finals.
“We’ve a real opportunity to do what no Irish team has ever done before,” Ireland prop Mike Ross said. “This opportunity, we’re going to grasp it with both hands.”
The wounded Wallabies were missing key forwards David Pocock and Stephen Moore that night against Ireland, and have been without blockbusting winger Digby Ioane and enterprising fullback Kurtley Beale for weeks. Coach Robbie Deans yesterday named a team that was as close to full strength as he could make it, determined to inflict yet another defeat on the Springboks - that would be four wins in five matches, including home and away this year.
South Africa assistant coach Gary Gold said if it was wet and windy in Wellington, the most experienced Springboks 15 ever assembled would have too much for Australia, which operates best with front-foot ball for its freewheeling backs.
Deans was excited about having his injured players back, but kept pushing the same line that he has all season.
“The knockout phases of the World Cup are completely different to every other type of rugby we play,” Deans said. “The stakes are higher, the intensity greater and the margins between success and failure smaller.
“You can pretty much guarantee that it will all only intensify from here.”
His message to the young Wallabies team: play to the conditions.
That’s something the All Blacks should manage, considering they rarely lose in Auckland. Even without star flyhalf Carter and with injury concerns over skipper Richie McCaw, the New Zealanders should have too much depth and experience across the field to be really troubled by an Argentine line-up missing influential No. 8 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe.
The Pumas aren’t giving up on producing a first ever win over the All Blacks, hoping their powerful pack can unsettle the hosts in the setpieces and at the breakdown.
“If we can dominate and create penalties it could become a great psychological weapon,” reserve prop Marcos Ayerza said.
The French are aiming to unsettle England and avenge semi-final losses to their old foes in last two World Cups. Exactly what strategy Mark Lievremont’s under-fire squad brings really depends on the moment. France’s horrendous form in the group, and the widely reported divisions in the touring squad, are the perfect background for a French revival.
“In the past, France has traditionally needed this kind of electroshock to give their best,” said Lievremont, adding that there’d be plenty of support for his French. “Of course the rivalry still exists between us, but when it comes to the English I think it exists with all the nations in the world.
“If I’m to believe all the messages of support from the New Zealanders, the Argentines and the Australians that we come across in the street. They are united against England, but that’s also what makes England strong, this ability to surpass themselves, to unite together against the rest of the world.”