Former Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi will deliver his last parliamentary speech this evening following which he will resign his seat.

Dr Gonzi, who led the Nationalist Party as its leader and the country as Prime Minister between 2004 and March this year, will be relinquishing his seat after serving the country for more than 25 years as a Speaker, minister, Prime Minister and Opposition Leader and, lastly, as an MP.

His resignation will trigger a mechanism to replace him in Parliament. Dr Gonzi was elected from two districts, but he relinquished the second one. This will mean that candidates who contested the seventh district and who were not elected will be eligible to contest the casual election.

There are seven candidates eligible to contest the casual election.

Judging by the number of preferences obtained by each candidate last March, former parliamentary secretary Tony Abela would be the slight favourite to win the seat. His first-count vote tally is the highest among those candidates who failed to be elected, and his position on the ballot sheet at the top of the PN’s list can also play an important part in his favour.

Former parliamentary assistant Peter Micallef also stands a very good chance of being elected. Though he obtained fewer first count votes, due to the transfer of votes he was the last candidate to be eliminated.

Another candidate with a realistic chance of success is David Vassallo, who garnered the most number of votes after Dr Abela.

The likelihood of former parliamentary assistant Philip Mifsud and Antoine Borg of being elected looks rather remote.  Though Edwin Vassallo and Rudolph Grima would also be eligible to contest, their modest number of votes garnered only gives them a small chance of success.