Neither impassioned pleas from UN secretary-general Ban Ki Moon nor dire warnings from scientists, nor even Typhoon Haiyan devastating the Philippines sufficed to inspire much progress at the recent two week long UN climate change ending here on 23 November.

The 195-nation 19th Conference of Contracting Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC COP 19) finally agreed on weakly worded compromise texts reflecting enduring major divergences within the groups of developed and developing nations, as well as between these two blocks. These cast doubts on whether a truly effective global climate change agreement to enter into force by 2020 can be initialled at the 21st conference in Paris in December, 2015. The Warsaw texts confirmed a related but  in places rather vaguely worded roadmap of negotiations, deadlines and templates.

The 2015 date was set by the 17th COP of December 2011 – following failure at the 15th COP  in Copenhagen  (2009) to meet a similar deadline agreed in 2007. The pact would cover all the key issues relating to mitigation (reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases), adaptation, finance, technology and a long-term vision to 2050. Its underlying goal would be actions in line with the latest scientific thinking on how to avert a catastrophic and unstoppable 'runaway' climate change process.

Mr Ban warned delegates that ”all around the world, people now face and fear the wrath of a warming planet. The science is clear. Human activities are the dominant cause of climate change. We cannot blame nature. Greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. We are the first humans ever to breathe air with 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide. The consequences are profound, dangerous and known to [us] all.”

Aiming to generate greater political momentum for success in Paris and the preceding COP in Peru (December 2014), the secretary-general has convened a climate change summit on 23 September next year for political, business, financial and civil society leaders.

“I ask all who come to bring bold and new announcements and action,” he stated.

It was also agreed in 2011 that  non-binding pledges tabled in 2010 for emission reduction to 2020 should be ramped up by 2015.  At last year's COP, EU and some other developed nations agreed to implement  binding emission reductions by 2020 under the second commitment period of the UNFCCC's Kyoto Protocol and review them at ministerial level in June 2014.

Russia and Japan did not commit, while Canada withdrew from the pact which the US had never ratified. In Warsaw, Japan and Australia reneged on their 2010 pledges in favour of lower numbers while no country improved their 2010 offers.

Two months ago, the first part of the Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (written by hundreds of scientists and signed off by governments) indicated that to limit the increase in the global temperature to the 'safe level' of 2C above pre-industrial levels (a figure endorsed by nations in 2010) world emissions must keep within a 'carbon budget', of which nearly two-thirds is already used up. The rest could be exhausted within 25 years at current emission rates. Current policies lead to a +3.7°C increase before 2100 – a scenario for global societal breakdown, scientists warn.

In 2012, 70% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were generated by China, followed by the United States, EU, India, Russian Federation and Japan.  This global total is 58% higher than in 1990, when negotiations started to draft the UNFCCC (which entered into force in 1994) further to a resolution tabled by Malta in 1989 at the UN General Asssembly.

How to arrive at 'equitable burden sharing' of emission reductions under the 2015 agreement remains the most challenging negotiating issue, whether for CO2 or the remaining greenhouse gases – methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Developing nations, which include China and India, demand extensive financial and technological help as a condition for their future efforts. How far major emitters should use current or future emission trading schemes (such as the EU's) to fulfil these reductions is a highly conflicted aspect.

The recently established Global Commission on Climate and the Economy bringing together politicians, business leaders and research institutes will issue a report before the Ban Ki Moon summit highlighting the economic benefits and feasibility of a rapid transition towards low-carbon development in line with emission reduction needs.

While the transition would cost at least a trillion dollars annually, related capital could be mobilised according to financial experts such as Sean Kidney, CEO and founder of the 'Climate Bonds Initiative.'  The bond market totals $78 trillion, compared to the equity market of $53 trillion, he points out, while investors are already moving into a new instrument with a huge expansion potential -  'green bonds' (dedicated to environment friendly, non-polluting investments). Under its 2013-2015 Action Plan, the Global Investor Coalition on Climate Change managing assets totalling $22 trillion – aims to both lobby governments and facilitate low-carbon investments.

These figures put in perspective the Warsaw wranglings about how $100bn a year by 2020 (also agreed in 2010) should be mobilised by developed countries – which seek to reduce the contribution of public funds in favour of private capital – for mitigation and adaptation in developing nations. Developed nations' governments refused to adopt a roadmap towards the target year and thus midway commitments reaching $70 billion for 2017.

After allocating $30 billion in aid over three years for 2010-2012 as 'fast start financing', only a few developed nations have promised limited funds for climate action this year or next.  Whether and when they will pay into the Green Climate Fund agreed in 2010, and now open for business at its Seoul headquarters, remains to be seen. It is highly uncertain whether global emissions trading schemes visualised for aviation and shipping could figure in the 2015 agreement as contributing towards the $100bn, given resistance from both industries, as well as many governments.

The launching of a loss and damage mechanism (to study climate change impacts which cannot be met by adaptation measures and eventually recommend financial compensation approaches) emerged as a modest gain from the session, along with an agreement to finance $280 millions worth of programmes in developing countries to reduce deforestation and forest degradation (accounting for some 20% of greenhouse gas emissions). 

Business leaders congregating in Warsaw to lobby delegates and attend exclusive high level corporate events at luxury hotels messaged negotiators: 'We can deliver low-carbon growth, but we need a solid legal framework first and meanwhile greater direct input to the UNFCCC negotations'.

Among several business initiatives announced were the 200-company World Business Council for Sustainable Development's Action 2020 for 'societal must haves', involving commitment to targets (such as the 2ºC limit), and­ specific goals to be achieved by 2020 in water, ecosystems, materials and energy, building on co-operative links with governments, scientists and civil society.

The UN Global Compact, linking 8,000 corporations in 145 countries committed to voluntary corporate sustainability initiatives, announced further progress in its C4C (Caring for Climate) programme supported by 350 companies, launched its Guide to Responsible Corporate Engagement in Climate Policy, and flagged new projects seeking public and private partners in its Climate and Energy Action Hub.

With business leaders privately commenting that there was still a 'lot of resistance to change'  the sector's overall business input to the Ban Ki Moon summit will be co-ordinated by the World Economic Forum whose annual meeting in Davos next month will focus on climate change.

Already under fire for blocking progress on climate change issues within the EU because of its insistence on protecting its coal mines and coal-fired energy system, Poland co-hosted a controversial Coal and Climate summit with the World Coal Association. Coal accounts for 43% of global CO2 emissions while coal-fired plants are key components in ambitious energy development plans of many developing nations, including China and India.

The summit attracted furious criticism from environmental NGOs as well as a statement from 27 leading scientists that even the most efficient coal plants emit 15 times more CO2 per unit of electricity than that derived from renewable energies. Avoiding dangerous climate change requires that  the majority of fossil fuel reserves need to stay underground, they insisted. Fossil fuels should only be reserved for non-replaceable functions in transport.

Addressing the summit, UNFCCC's executive secretary Christiana Figueres urged “every coal company to honestly assess the financial risks of business as usual; anticipate increasing regulation, growing finance restrictions and diminishing public acceptance; and leverage technology to reduce emissions across the entire coal value chain and diversify beyond coal into renewable energies..and reduce the risk of stranded assets”.

The World Energy Council stated at a press conference that if the problem of storing renewable energies fluctuating output could be resolved (an issue focusing a lot of current research) fossil fuels could disappear from the energy mix within the following 20 years. WEC added that the much touted future 'clean coal' technology still undergoing pilot trials,  Carbon Capture and Storage, was 'unlikely to happen' across the industry.

Participants in the Transport Day 2013 urged reorienting government land transport policies towards a more sustainable, low-carbon growth trajectory citing International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates of potential savings of USD$20 trillion in infrastructure expenditures and USD$30 trillion in vehicle and fuel expenditures between now and 2050.

Hailing the 'groundswell of activities all levels of society' and progress on several issues in Warsaw UNFCCC executive secretary Christiana Figueres warned the final press conference that much more ambition was needed for the 2015 agreement to meet the minimum goals for action set by science.

Next month, the EU Commission will issue its roadmap for future energy and climate policies (2030 and 2050), to be hopefully endorsed by the March 2014 European Council. It remains to be seen if the actual decisions will position EU for a lead role in the coming UNFCCC negotiations.