Since 22 September 2014, when Hong Kong students decided to boycott classes in protest at the central government's decision to limit voters' choices in the 2017 Chief Executive election, the democracy debate in Hong Kong has attracted wide international attention and kindled fears, perhaps unfounded, of a repeat of the 1989 Tiananmen Square bloodbath.
The Hong Kong Federation of Students, representing student unions of eight tertiary education institutions, and the more radical Scholarism, representing secondary school students, carried their vociferous protests close to the government headquarters, blocked arterial routes and most of the financial centre. They were joined by Occupy Central with Love and Peace, a movement advocating civil disobedience and occupation of government buildings in its struggle for universal suffrage. By 26 September, the demonstrations, civil disobedience and disruption of economic activity reached unprecedented proportions. The first clashes with the security forces occurred soon afterwards when the protesters refused to leave the forecourt of the Central Government Complex. When tear gas was fired the students used their umbrellas to protect themselves, and the yellow umbrella became the icon of the defiant pro-democracy movement. Since then there have been sporadic clashes with the security forces, and several nasty attacks on the protesters by pro-Beijing activists and triads.
The stated goals of the protesters are universal suffrage, the resignation of the Chief Executive, Mr Chun-ying Leung, the withdrawal of the decision of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, and the drawing up of a new electoral reform plan which will establish clear signposts towards full democracy.
Beijing has consistently denounced the pro-democracy protests and street occupations as illegal, and defended its position that openly nominating candidates for Chief Executive elections would result in a "chaotic society"- to quote Mr Li Fei, the deputy secretary general of the National People's Congress Standing Committee. In a white paper published in June 2014, Beijing, targeting Britain and the West, said that some had a "confused and lopsided" understanding of the "one country, two systems" model. Indeed, as it grapples with demands for greater autonomy from other quarters, particularly the regions of Xinjian, where Uyghurs' aspirations are ruthlessly being suppressed, and Tibet, Beijing constantly insists that unity is the way forward for China.
As the young demonstrators in Hong Kong continue with their civil disobedience and occupation campaign in full view of the world's media, it is unlikely that the Chinese leadership will call the army to crush the protests. Its short-term tactic is clearly to wait for the protests to unravel under the strain of an adverse Beijing controlled media, which daily reports how the protests are damaging the economy, and opposition from the pro-Beijing factions and the business community. China is calculating that the protesters, confronted with Beijing's intransigence, mounting lack of support and sheer fatigue, will gradually disperse and business returns to normal.
President Xi Jinping and his Politburo seem to have few other options since any disproportionate crackdown risks radicalising the protests, and ruining the current cooperative relationship with China's Western partners. China's only problem with this wait-and-see tactic is that, should the protests drag too long, they may dent the credibility of China's leadership and find an echo among dissatisfied populations in China's mainland provinces. Aware of this threat China is tightly controlling the internet and other media on the mainland, where a campaign is being waged against the initiators of the Hong Kong protests. However, what is happening in Hong Kong cannot remain a secret in the mainland for long, and the possibility of a more aggressive Chinese intervention to end the protests cannot be ruled out.
Hong Kong is vastly different from those provinces on mainland China where resistance to Beijing is endemic and ruthlessly repressed away from the world's media. Modern Hong Kong is a teaming, commercially vibrant metropolis where Chinese and Western influences meet. With 7.2 million inhabitants and an area of only 1,098 sq km, it has one of the highest population density in the world. 93% of the population are ethnic Chinese. Hong Kong has one of the world's highest per capita income, exceeding $41,000, and also one of the largest income inequality among advanced economies (International Monetary Fund 2013 report). It enjoys high international rankings in financial and economic competitiveness (Global Competitiveness Index 2012 - 2013). It is an important international financial centre with a strong services economy characterised by free trade and low taxation. It has a very high human development index - 15th in the world, according to the 2014 Human Development Summary Report by the United Nations Development Programme.
How did all this come about? It began in 1839, when the Qing Dynasty refused to allow opium imports, thus causing the First Opium War with Britain, and was defeated. Under the 1842 Treaty of Nanking, Imperial China ceded Hong Kong Island to Britain. Following a second war over opium, in 1860 the Kowloon Peninsula and a number of surrounding islands were also ceded to Britain. Finally, under the 1898 Convention for the Extension of Hong Kong Territory, Britain obtained a 99-year lease of the New Territories and some 235 islands, making up the territory of today's Hong Kong. Britain established a free port which transformed Hong Kong into a major trading post and financial centre, the basis of Hong Kong's prosperity.
In 1984, as the countdown to the handover began, Britain and China signed a Joint Declaration on the conditions under which Hong Kong would return to Chinese rule. In 1990, Beijing formally ratified Hong Kong's post-handover constitution or Basic Law. Thus, in 1997, Hong Kong became, for the next 50 years, a Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China, based on the model of "one country, two systems". It became part of Communist China but retained its capitalist economic system and semi-democratic political system
The formula of "one country, two systems" has always been ambiguous, in particular with regard to what could be done by the Hong Kong Legislative Council in matters of political reform during the transition period - the 50 years between 1997 and 2047. Britain is partly to blame for not making a stand for full democracy before the handover. However, it is doubtful whether this could be obtained from Beijing. In 1992, Chris Patten, the last British Governor, announced proposals for the democratic reform of Hong Kong's institutions aimed at broadening the voting base in elections. After two years of bitter wrangling with Beijing, a watered-down version of Chris Patten's democratic reform package was adopted, which widened the franchise but fell far short from providing for universal suffrage.
There is a very strong democratic current in Hong Kong judging by the youth protests and the sympathy they generated among the general public. However, the current political reality makes it equally clear that the expectation that Hong Kong will have a full direct democracy, with a freely elected Legislative Council and Chief Executive is not realistic as long as one party rule prevails in China.
Besides electoral reform other issues having to do with demography and economics are causing tension between Hong Kong and the mainland. Business and trade have benefited from closer relations with the mainland since the handover. However, there is growing discontent with the number of mainland Chinese coming to Hong Kong and competing for its resources. Moreover, as China pursues its global economic expansion there is a risk that Hong Kong will be overrun by competition and money from the mainland.
The current crisis is basically one of unmet expectations, and the protests are an expression of a deep anxiety among Hong Kong youths about their future. The best way for us to support them is by pointing out to Beijing the political and economic advantages of compromise.