In an issue that is of concern to Malta, the European Union has highlighted a possible increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, through its European Environment State and Outlook Report 2015.
“The likely increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, particularly in southern Europe, is projected to increase heat-attributable deaths unless adaptation measures are undertaken,” the report explains. “Without adaptation, between 60,000 and 165,000 additional heat-related deaths per year in the EU are projected by the 2080s, depending on the scenario”.
The report states that the effects of heatwaves can be aggravated in congested urban areas “with high rates of soil sealing and heat-absorbing surfaces”.
Coherent approaches to urban adaptation combine so-called 'green', 'grey', and 'soft' measures. Adaptation strategies for 'grey' infrastructure, such as buildings, transport, water utilities, or energy utilities need to ensure that this infrastructure continues to function in a more resource-efficient manner.
Some adaptation actions can be governed at a city level, such as heatwave warning plans (an example of a 'soft' measure). Other actions may require multilevel governance mechanisms, involving regional, national or international levels, as in the case of flood protection”.
The European Environment State and Outlook Report 2015 shows that Europe is well on its way on a number of targets, however also highlights worrying situations relating to climate change and world population growth.
The overall findings point to success in the reduction of environmental pressures, the report by the European Environment Agency explains. Without such emphasis on environment, such growth since the 70s would have resulted in stronger impacts. “The EU has demonstrated that well designed, binding policies work and deliver huge benefits”.
The report mentions the 7th Environment Action Programme, 'Living well, within the limits of our planet', stating that the EU, through this plan, formulated a vision for 2050 of a “low carbon society, a green, circular economy and resilient ecosystems, as the basis for citizens' well-being”.
“In 2015, Europe stands roughly halfway between the initiation of EU environmental policy in the early 1970s and the EU's 2050 vision of 'living well within the limits of the planet'. Underlying this vision is a recognition that Europe's economic prosperity and well-being is intrinsically linked to its natural environment — from fertile soils to clean air and water”.
While many improvements have been noted, the report shows that substantial challenges still remain and the EU remains lacking in a number of sectors.
Protected species and habitat types at risk
A large number of protected species (60%) and habitat types (77%) are considered to be in unfavourable conservation status, the report explained, adding that Europe is not on track to meet its overall target of halting biodiversity loss by 2020, even though some more specific targets are being met. “Looking ahead, climate change impacts are projected to intensify and the underlying drivers of biodiversity loss are expected to persist”.
As for marine and coastal biodiversity, the short-term outlook (5-10 years), shows that a small number of species are within a favourable conservation status. The long-term outlook (20+ years) however, indicates that climate change will have certain effects on marine ecosystems.
Emissions
European greenhouse gas emissions have decreased by 19% since 1990, even though a 45% increase in economic output has been registered, the report explains. “Other environmental pressures have also decoupled in absolute terms from economic growth. Fossil fuel use has declined, as have emissions of some pollutants from transport and industry. More recently, the EU's total resource use has declined by 19% since 2007, less waste is being generated and recycling rates have improved in nearly every country”.
Marked improvements have been noted in the quality of drinking and bathing water, however despite certain improvements in air quality, air and noise pollution continue to have serious impacts on health, the report added.
“Exposure to environmental noise is estimated to contribute to at least 10,000 premature deaths due to coronary heart disease and strokes each year. And growing use of chemicals, particularly in consumer products, has been associated with an observed increase of endocrine diseases and disorders in humans”.
There is concern in some areas relating to environmental health risks. “Projected improvements in air quality, for example, are not expected to be sufficient to prevent continuing harm to health and the environment, while health impacts resulting from climate change are expected to worsen”.
Globalisation
Globalisation also plays a factor on the environmental situation within Europe. “Global megatrends will alter future European consumption patterns and influence the European environment and climate. By anticipating these developments Europe can harvest the opportunities they create to reach environmental targets.” Such megatrends relate to demographics, economic growth, patterns of production and trade, technological progress and the degradation of ecosystems.
The Global population is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050, according to UN projections. The report highlights a rather worrying projection, that energy and water demand are both expected to rise by 30%-40% over the coming 20 years and the total demand for food by around the same amount.
“Growing concerns about food, water and energy security have fuelled transnational land acquisitions in the last 5–10 years, primarily in developing countries. Between 2005 and 2009 alone, global foreign land acquisitions totalled some 470 000 km2, which is comparable to the size of Spain. In some countries (particularly in Africa) large parts of the agricultural area have been sold to foreign investors, mostly from Europe, North America, China and the Middle East”.
A rather interesting point is made within the report. Considering population growth will result in an increasing demand for food, this will also create a burden on the world’s freshwater. “Even if we continue to use water more efficiently, the absolute agricultural intensification needed to meet the world's growing food and feed demand — due to population growth and changing diets — could lead to severe water stress in many world regions”.
Climate change
Impacts of climate change in Europe, linked to health and well-being, are mainly related to extreme weather events, changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases, and changes in environmental and social conditions, the report reads.
Projected climate change impacts are not equally distributed in Europe, thus to address such challenges adaptive actions will need to be taken the report explained. “Vulnerable population groups include the elderly and children, people with chronic diseases, socially deprived groups and traditional societies. The Arctic, the Mediterranean basin, urban areas, mountain and coastal areas, and river flood-prone areas represent particularly vulnerable regions”.
Then and now
A broad range of environmental legislation has been enacted since the 1970s.
The report adds that environmental protection levels in most parts of Europe have also improved and air, water and soil pollution have significantly reduced since the 70s. “These improvements are to a substantial degree a result of the comprehensive environment legislation established across Europe, and they are delivering a range of direct environmental, economic and societal benefits, as well as more indirect ones”.
Environmental policies have contributed to progress towards a greener economy (an economy, in which policies and innovations enable society to use resources efficiently, thereby enhancing human well-being in an inclusive manner, while maintaining the natural systems that sustain us).
“Estimates presented in the European Commission's proposal for a Clean Air Policy Package show that major engineering companies in the EU already earn up to 40% of their revenues from their environment portfolios, and this is set to increase”.
The report warns that the depletion of natural capital continues to jeopardise good ecological status and ecosystem resilience. “Biodiversity loss, climate change, or chemical burdens create additional risks and uncertainty. In other words, reductions in certain environmental pressures have not necessarily resulted in a positive outlook for the environment more broadly”.
Looking to the future
The EU has committed 20% of its 2014-2020 budget to promoting a clean and low-carbon economy.
“Although full implementation of existing policies will be essential, neither the environmental policies currently in place, nor economic and technology-driven efficiency gains will be sufficient to achieve Europe’s 2050 vision,” it adds.
In order to reach the 2050 targets, the EU will require more coherent and ambitious policies, “alongside better knowledge and smarter investments, aimed at fundamentally transforming key systems such as food, energy, housing, transport, finance, health and education”.