An internal survey commissioned by the Nationalist Party that was leaked to this newsroom suggests that PN leader Simon Busuttil has steadily gained ground with those who claim to have voted for Joseph Muscat for the first time in the March 2013 general election.
The survey, conducted among 700 respondents, was carried out in May following the Local Council Elections in which the PN made its first increase at the polls in the last seven years since the 2008 general election.
Until then, Simon Busuttil’s trust rating, both in the iSurvey commissioned by this newspaper and in other media surveys, was below the party’s public rating, while that of Joseph Muscat always reflected a better rating than his own party. But if the PN survey is correct, Simon Busuttil’s trust rating has grown with party loyalists and switchers alike.
“It’s clear that he’s finally been accepted by the grassroots and that this outlook is also reflected in those who did not vote PN in 2013 and in the MEP election of 2014,” a source within the PN who leaked the survey said.
This newsroom wanted to investigate the PN’s and PL’s internal surveys because only the parties themselves can identify the percentage of switchers by using their own historical data. Internal surveys are hardly ever leaked to the media since the data they contain can show a party’s electoral vulnerabilities.
Sources within the PN who disclosed the data told this newsroom that IT security was tightened at PN headquarters following this leak. “All passwords have been changed and an external company was commissioned to investigate the matter,” the source said.
The PN’s internal survey also shows that notwithstanding his improved rating, Simon Busuttil is still lagging behind Joseph Muscat. In fact, while the Prime Minister lost ground with the switchers, he gained some of it with those who said they had voted PL in the past five elections – in other words, the party faithful.
The internal PN survey shows, for the first time, how 16-year-olds would vote in an upcoming general election. Significantly, Muscat and Busuttil are running neck and neck in this age bracket.
The survey also shows that Dr Muscat’s ratings are strongest among pensioners, nearly double Dr Busuttil’s rating in that category. This could be directly linked to the Prime Minister’s firm pledge to reduce electricity bills.
On the other hand, Dr Busuttil has strengthened his support with people in their late 50s, but his worst performance is with those aged between 35 and 52, where Dr Muscat experienced some losses but still leads in the age bracket.
Another significant endorsement for the PN leader comes from the people aged 25-34, considering that this section of society seemed to have embraced Joseph Muscat’s ‘Malta Tagħna Lkoll’ political roadmap.
The internal PN survey also reveals that Dr Muscat is still going strong with the 18- to 24-year-olds who played an important role in the last PL general election campaign.
The survey shows that the Prime Minister’s support has weakened with male voters but has improved his rating with women. On the other hand, Dr Busuttil lost some support as regards women but made gains with regard to men.