Public sentiment on Energy and Health Minister Konrad Mizzi and the Prime Minister’s chief of staff Keith Schembri is decisive enough that it could sway an election, the latest version of the ISurvey shows.

This newsroom analysed how respondents would vote, based on how they felt about the fate of Dr Mizzi and Mr Schembri.

This is an exercise that attempts to gauge how respondents might shift their voting habits based on different scenarios. It must be stressed that while the data clearly indicates a shift in certain patterns under each scenario, it is not possible to say with complete certainty how people’s preferences may shift due to the uncertainty of human behaviour.

Nonetheless, this exercise provides useful insight into the collective tone of the general public three years into this current legislature.

Both Dr Mizzi and Mr Schembri were found to hold a trust and a company registered in New Zealand and the financially secretive jurisdiction of Panama respectively.

These were opened while the two were already holding public office. This resulted in two national protests against corruption as well as the presentation of a motion of no confidence in Dr Muscat’s government. This did not go through due to the government’s comfortable majority in Parliament, however pressure to remove Dr Mizzi and Mr Schembri persists.

Answers of respondents were cross-referenced based on whether they believe that Dr Mizzi and Mr Schembri should resign or not, which party leader they trust most, how they rate the government’s performance and whether they believed the government is corrupt or not.

This was done in order to ascertain how likely various groupings of respondents are to vote for either the Labour Party, the Nationalist Party or refrain from voting.

 

Scenario 1: Should Konrad Mizzi and Keith Schembri stay, PL could be trailing second by 10 per cent

Overall, it was found that should Dr Mizzi and Mr Schembri stay, and an election were to take place following this, the Nationalist Party could lead with 45.2 per cent, the Labour Party could register 35.2 per cent of the vote, Alternattiva Demokratika at 2.79 per cent, new party (Marlene Farrugia) 4.19 per cent, would not vote 12.1 per cent, don’t know 6.37 per cent, and other small parties 0.7 per cent. The PN lead of 10 per cent translates into 30,554 votes.

Without cross-referencing respondents’ answers with their beliefs about Dr Mizzi and Mr Schembri, should an election be held today, the PL would leads with 32.8 per cent, PN 29.49 per cent, AD 2.79 per cent, New Party (Marlene Farrugia) 4.19 per cent, would not vote 17.28 per cent, don’t know 12.9 per cent and other small parties 0.7 per cent.

This shows that the proportion lost of those who opted for ‘would not vote’ and ‘don’t know’ largely went to the PN, in this scenario.

When analysing the answers of all those who said they will not vote or do not know, it was found that 31.1 per cent of this group want Dr Mizzi and Mr Schembri to resign, feel that the government is corrupt, trust neither leader or in a few cases Simon Busuttil, and found the government’s performance to be unfavourable. This translates into 9.33 per cent of total respondents.

Even though the overwhelming majority of respondents in the undecided grouping and ‘would not vote’ believe that the government officials should resign, many of their answers relating to corruption, trust and performance were favourable towards the government. It is therefore quite possible that the minority of respondents who believe they should resign, and rate the government unfavourably could cross over to the PN in this scenario.

The answers from the trust, performance and corruption categories of those who voted PL or PN in the last general election were also analysed, in order to determine whether there might be any respondents who could be likely to cross over to the other mainstream party based on their beliefs.

When looking at the proportion of respondents who voted for PL in the last general election, 24.7 per cent also believe that the embattled government officials should resign from their posts. When cross-referencing the responses, it was found that only 13.6 per cent of this grouping would be more likely to cross over to the PN or possibly refrain from voting in the next general election. This translates into 7.5 per cent of total respondents.

A total of 93 per cent of respondents who voted PN in the last general election want Dr Mizzi and Mr Schembri to resign, so in this scenario, it is highly likely that they will do the same in the next election.

 

Scenario 2: Should Konrad Mizzi and Keith Schembri leave, PL could lead by a comfortable12.6 per cent

Conversely, should Dr Mizzi and Mr Schembri vacate their positions, it was found that if an election were held following this, the PL could lead with 42.13 per cent of the vote, the PN 29.49 per cent, AD 2.79 per cent, new party (Marlene Farrugia) 4.19 per cent, would not vote 12.1 per cent, don’t know 6.37 per cent and other small parties 0.7 per cent. The PL 12.6 per cent lead translates into 39,415 votes.

This shows how the PL could soak up the losses in those respondents who said they would not vote or are undecided. The majority of respondents who had opted for ‘would not vote’ and ‘don’t know’ should an election be held today, believed in the removal of Dr Mizzi and Mr Schembri, and responded favourably towards the government in terms of trust, corruption and performance, indicating that they could be most likely to vote for the ruling party should this scenario take place.

The same methodology for scenario 1 was used in scenario 2, where the answers of respondents who had voted PL or PN in the last election were cross-referenced with the same government approval answers. In total, it was found that 12.4 per cent of total respondents agreed with the removal of the embattled politicians, while also viewing the government favourably. A total of 9.7 per cent hailed from the Labour camp.

In the light of other survey questions, where it was found that corruption and the Panama scandal where the top two concerns with 30 per cent of total mentions, the data indicates that should the government officials in question resign, the PL would have a more than comfortable lead.

Overall, the PL together with Prime Minister Joseph Muscat ranked first among respondents in trust, performance, perception of corruption and won a slight majority of votes when all respondents were asked who they would vote for should an election be held today.

The 600 respondents, representative of age, gender and spread of locality, gave their answers at the beginning of April. This was at the height of the Panama scandal, leading one to conclude that anger against Dr Mizzi and Mr Schembri on suspicion of corruption would be felt most at that point in time.