It is high time for all the experts to come together and study, as objectively as can be, the real state of the Maltese economy.

It is clear that the state of the economy will be one of the main factors in the coming election campaign but this also means that the issue will be buried under tons of spin and people will be none the wiser.

Whereas for any decision and plan forward we need to have a proper appraisal of the state of the economy.

The government, for instance, does not let one day pass without reminding us of GDP growth, low unemployment and the frequent positive ratings by reputable ratings agencies.

At the end, however, we, the people of Malta and Gozo will be the best judges of that.

There are some points that need clarification.

First, the GDP growth. When a country starts from a low level, any GDP growth is extraordinary. China, for instance, has a huge GDP growth of 13%. Moldova, the poorest country in Europe, has a GDP growth of 8%.

The calculation of GDP is a terribly complicated calculation which adds together private consumption, gross investment, government spending and the balance of exports. It is clear, therefore, that an increase in government spending can boost GDP growth practically on its own. So too a consumer boost. But, looking at the Malta figures, gross investment has been declining these past years and it was only the Chinese investment in Enemalta that boosted GDP figures.

When, in 1987, the government employed some 7,500 on the eve of the election, that boosted GDP and also reduced unemployment. But Malta as a whole declined, rather than grew.

Then, salaries. It is an incontrovertible fact that average salaries in Malta have not risen as much as rents, for instance have risen. The reason is simple: rents have increased because of a huge demand and an insufficient amount available. Wages and salaries have not had any real growth these past years.

This then explains all this huge housing boom, brought about by the government's relaxation of Planning Authority rules and by the belief held by so many that development is a sure way to make money. These people have never heard of a housing bubble, but that is precisely what they have been doing.

They build and build but they are already finding they cannot sell all the property they build. And it will only be if Malta's population were to grow to, for instance, a million or so, that all these units can be sold and inhabited.

But then think of the huge demand on infrastructure and on the roads, already creaking with today's burden.

At the same time, there is a huge swath of the Maltese population that is still living in poverty, depending on social assistance, and making do with literally pennies. While others are rolling in riches, many times the neighbours of the former. The spending on people on social assistance and on other needy cohorts, such as pensioners, has not increased at all.

We need such a study as impartially as possible and as early as possible before the noise and dust of the election campaign drowns out all reason. We also need such a study so as to be able to plan ahead on the macro level. But we need such a study first and foremost so as to be prepared if and when the bubble bursts.