Should an election be held today, the Labour Party will win with a margin of 53.1 per cent while the PN/PD coalition will receive 46 per cent of the vote, meaning that a difference of 7.1 per cent lies between the two political parties.

The data comes from the latest edition of the iSurvey which was conducted by Business Leaders for The Malta Independent between 25 April and 3 May.

A significant fact is that the 7.1 per cent difference lies outside the margin of error of the survey which stands at +/-5 per cent.

When compared to the 2013 electoral results, the PL will dip by 1.7 per cent while the PN will gain 2.6 per cent of which 1.9 per cent is PD’s contribution to the total. AD will dip by 1.2 per cent from 1.8 per cent of votes it received in 2013 to 0.6 per cent in this edition of the iSurvey.

From a sample of 600 respondents, the PL received 42.6 per cent while the PN got 35.1 per cent. PD on its own received an approval rate of 1.5 per cent while AD lagged behind with 0.5 per cent. Other small parties together got 0.4 per cent.

Seven per cent said they will either not vote or are still undecided. 10.8 per cent of respondents said they don’t know whom to vote for while 2.4 per cent refused to answer the question.

When removing those who will not vote, those who don’t know who to vote for, and those who refused to answer, the survey gives 53.1 per cent to the PL and 44.1 per cent to PN, which, when added to the 1.9 per cent obtained by PD that will have its candidates on the PN list, the coalition will result in 44.1 per cent, still far off PL’s result.

When compared to the last iSurvey conducted in November 2016, the PL actually improved its position amid the allegations of corruption which is the biggest issue by far on people’s minds in this edition of the iSurvey.

In November, the PL received 52 per cent while the PN had 44.3 per cent. AD had managed 2.7 per cent, which was far more than what it received in this edition of the iSurvey. PD was still relatively new and still not part of the PN/PD coalition. It in fact got 0.5 per cent in November while it now enjoys 1.9 per cent alone.

 

Gender and age preferences

While support for the PL is evenly split between males and females with 42.6 per cent males and 42 per cent females who will vote for the PL, the PN has more support amongst female voters with 37.1 per cent and 33.1 per cent who are male.

More females, 8.4 per cent, intend to abstain than males, at 5.5 per cent. On the other hand, those who are still undecided who to vote for are evenly split between males and females.

When it comes to splitting voters’ intentions by age, the PN is strongest among 18 to 24-year-olds with 45.2 per cent of the vote. The PL is in extremely bad shape with this age group getting only 22.4 per cent of the vote. However, it should be noted that 21.5 per cent of this age group say they will not vote while 10.9 per cent still don’t know who to vote for.

On the other hand, the situation is completely reversed in the 25-34 age group with PL getting 48 per cent and PN 21.8 per cent. 12.8 per cent said they will not vote while 13 per cent still don’t know for whom to vote.

In the 35-44 age bracket, the main parties stand closer in the iSurvey with PL getting 36.3 per cent and PN 31.9 per cent. Those who will not vote stand at 11.7 per cent and those who are undecided at 12.7 per cent.

In the 45-54 age group which is traditionally on the left one can notice a shift with people who 20 years ago stood with Eddie Fenech Adami’s policies now moving into this age group and leaving a mark. In fact, 41.3 per cent will vote for the PN while 35.8 per cent will vote for PL. Only 6.3 per cent of this group said they will not vote while 14.6 per cent are still undecided whom to vote. This part of the data is very significant as it shows a shift among those who were considered to be part of the ‘switching’ population in the 2013 election.

In the 55-64 age group, the PL retains the lead with 48 per cent v 35 per cent for the PN. 4.6 per cent said they will not vote while 7.6 per cent are still undecided who to vote for.

The PL also holds tight to its lead over the PN with those over 65. In fact, it gets 46.8 per cent of the vote while the PN only gets 36.3 per cent. This group is the least one that intends to abstain in the election with only 2.5 per cent who said they will vote, while 8.3 per cent are still undecided who to vote for. It is clear from this age group that Labour’s energy policies, in particular that to reduce electricity bills, has worked with pensioners who are the most vulnerable when coping with cost of living.

 

Voting intentions by region

When analyzing the voting intentions, as declared by respondents of the iSurvey by region, a staggering 20.1 per cent in Gozo said they are still undecided for whom to vote. This is nearly as much as those Gozitans who declare they will be voting for the PN which is 24.3 per cent. On the other hand, the PL has a support of 39.9 per cent amongst Gozitans while 9.1 per cent of Gozitans refused to say who they will be voting for.

As for the rest of Malta, the PL is stronger than the PN in the South and Southeast, while the PN is stronger in the North and West parts of the country. Both parties are at par in the northern harbour area.