Approximately two weeks ago, Joseph Muscat chose to (ab)use his prerogative and call for an early election probably in order to use a possible electoral victory in order to ablut himself and his administration from Panamagate. It is not the first time that an electoral mandate or electoral ratings have been used by a Prime Minister for this scope. Silvio Berlusconi, who was initially close to Bettino Craxi (convicted of corruption and for illicitly funding the Italian Socialist Party) and besieged by 101 scandals (last but not least, the notorious Rubygate), made reference to his enjoying the support of the majority of the electorate on numerous occasions in order to ward off any criticism levelled at him. Joseph Muscat’s strategy is clearly the same.
Polls show that the Labour Party currently still enjoys the support of the majority of the electorate and if Joseph Muscat and the Labour continue to top the polls till 3 June, then Malta is heading for Armageddon. Leaving the Egrant issue for a moment, Joseph Muscat should have resigned last year when the Panamagate scandal rocked his administration. This is the way the Prime Minister of a Western, liberal democracy should behave, but no, Joseph Muscat decided to stand by “his” men and soldier on.
These events in themselves should have led to the formation of a coalition between Forza Nazzjonali and Alternattiva Demokratika, but because both the Nationalist Party and Alternattiva decided to stick to their “red lines”, this coalition never materialized. Both parties are to blame and both parties should be held equally responsible if Joseph Muscat is elected for another five-year term after 3 June. That the PN and the PL are not comparable is a fact, which was evident even to Alternattiva. The AD Chairperson himself declared that Alternattiva was not open to coalition talks with Labour, because of Panamagate. Therefore, even Alternattiva is making a distinction between the two major parties. The only thing is that this failed agreement has led to a splitting of the anti-Panama front and the impression given to the lay person was that the talks broke down on a totally trivial issue, which should mean only one thing – that the current situation with a Minister and the Prime Minister’s chief of staff involved in the Panamagate scandal and with the Prime Minister himself allegedly involved in the Egrant affair plus the incapability of the institutions of the State to deal with it, are in themselves not serious enough. Both the PN and Alternattiva stand to lose from this impasse, a coalition involved the PN, the PD and AD would contribute towards giving the anti-Panama gang movement even more momentum and is possibly our best chance at averting another five years of Muscat. A divided anti-Panama front will lead to AD losing more than half of its votes and an electoral result, which would be considered as catastrophic for the party and would spell the end of Simon Busuttil’s political career and ambition to become Prime Minister. But both these outcomes are nowhere as spine chilling as a second Muscat premiership…
Most AD voters, like me, have realized what is at stake on 3rd June and, given the choice between Joseph Muscat and the Panama gang and Simon Busuttil and the PN (with their 101 defects and silly proposals such as matching the PL’s racing track proposal), would (perhaps with a heavy heart) prefer to vote for the latter, even if it means giving Alternattiva a miss. Some ex PN voters who switched to Labour, in 2013 (and who are too proud to admit that they were mistaken), will not be convinced that the PN has changed and will either not turn up at the polling station or perhaps vote Labour again (perhaps a little more reluctantly than the last time). So for the trivial reasons, which were explained to the press two weeks ago, PN and AD are willing to jeopardise their electoral ambitions and even worse consign the country to Joseph Muscat again… seriously!
The two parties should re-start coalition talks immediately and before it is too late (and it may already be too late), I believe that the independent press should and could play a pivotal role, here. The two parties should solve their differences, even if it means giving up on their red lines and form a common front against Joseph Muscat. Both parties have all the reasons in this world to join forces, both politically (AD’s and Simon Busuttil’s political survival) and morally, to prevent Muscat from taking power and preventing the annihilation of the institutions and any checks and balances, which would ensue. In order to salvage the coalition idea, AD should even consider the PN’s offer of contesting on its list. For AD voters like me there is a difference between the two parties and, if faced with the choice between five more years of Muscat and giving AD a miss this time round to ensure that Busuttil is premier on 5th June, then we will opt for Busuttil’s premiership. Even if it means that we would have to be ready to oppose some of his decisions from day one. AD would also lose credibility on the coalition issues; the details are, in this case, irrelevant. On the other hand, the PN can survive another electoral defeat (look at Labour). The PN should realize that it also has responsibility for the mess we are in. The Constitution currently grants the Prime Minister enormous power, by giving him the right to nominate the Judiciary, the President (de facto), the Commissioner of Police, and so on. The Constitution should have been amended in order to ensure effective checks and balances to the immeasurable power of the Prime Minister, by limiting his powers to heading Cabinet only. The PN had 25 years to do so, instead it decided to leave everything as is so there are compelling reasons for it to try to reach a compromise with AD.
However, if the two parties are (stupidly) too set in their ways then they should look for other possible avenues for cooperation. There is nothing to be gained from antagonizing each other; on the contrary, this will only serve to weaken the arguments of the anti-Panama front. My suggestion is that if it is absolutely impossible to form the anti-Muscat coalition (this would also steal some wind from the sails of Muscat’s faux Moviment) then the least the two parties can do, is agree to a “desistence pact”. This is possible with Malta’s electoral system if the PN and AD agree, that the PN will work so that AD gets a number of second preferences on the district, which (according to the polls) is likely to return four PN deputies, meaning that AD elects a deputy. In return for this, AD binds itself to rally behind Simon Busuttil in Parliament. Why should the PN, de facto cede one deputy to AD? The answer to this question lies in the Constitution; the constitutional adjustment mechanism applies if only two parties are represented in Parliament. If the number of seats to be allocated to the PN is relatively close to that to be awarded to the PL, then this is a possibility that should be considered. In my view, relying on this possibility is rather risky, also because it is difficult to know at this stage how the parliamentary seats will be allocated, but nevertheless, this is a possibility which should be explored. I prefer the coalition option.
The electorate is faced with a choice on 3rd June and the choice is a very simple one – it either wants five more years of Joseph Muscat and the Panama clique, or not. The PN and AD have a moral obligation to ensure that Joseph Muscat’s clique is ousted; they cannot break the “anti-Panama gang front”. I therefore urge the independent media to try and convince the two Parties to go back to the negotiating table and reach an agreement. This can be done through conjoint editorials asking for this to happen. However eventually we’re in the hands of the electorate as L’Altroparlante (an Italian radio programme) aptly put it during the Berlusconi regime…
“… c’e chi insinua che il finale, dipenderà dal popolo, se si sveglierà… altrimenti in pochi vissero felici e contenti – there are those who insinuate that the ending (of this story) depends on the electorate, if it wakes up; otherwise very few will live happily ever after” Canzone ad personam in L’Altroparlante.
Anton Agius