In 2003 we, the small group of journalists who had accompanied Malta’s approach to EU accession and had covered the referendum campaign, were so convinced the referendum would be lost that we held a dinner at a posh restaurant and dubbed the event ‘The Last Supper’.

Some weeks later, we were discussing the ensuing election at the office and, on a whim, we went up to an upper, disused, floor and – one after the other – wrote on the wall who we thought would win and with what majority. This, as many remember, was just a few weeks after the referendum. Each one of us wrote the winning party, as he saw it, and what majority it would have. On a whim, because I had not reasoned things out in my mind, I wrote the highest majority.

The PN won that election and sealed Malta’s accession to the EU. The majority it obtained was even greater than the number I had scribbled.

The scrawlings on the wall were still there up a few months ago, when that floor was redecorated and the writings were covered up.

This small, unimportant, event was one occasion when I rightly predicted the outcome of an election. At another time, on the eve of the October 1996 election, I had predicted the victory of the Nationalist Party on the front page of The Malta Business Weekly and was roundly told off by then journalist Joe Mifsud as I stood talking to Lino Spiteri in the counting hall as Labour swept to power.

As the votes are counted later this morning, the atmosphere will become extremely tense and rumours of various sorts sweep the country. Some may even be moved to jump the gun and go out to celebrate. But there is a special beauty in our system: the counting hall may be laborious and slow but it is the definite judgment of the people expressed in each person’s vote and there is no appeal against this judgment.

Prior to that, we may make guesses, or even make bets, but there is no certainty in either.

We have had polls and, if we believe them, then Labour will win the election. There was only one poll, the one by Malta Survey, posted by Gerald Fenech on Maltawinds on the Day of Silence, that spoke of the PN having a 1.6 per cent advantage over Labour from a sample of 5,000 voters. All the other polls published up until then had concluded that Labour would win.

Many try to forecast the result by watching the huge crowds at the meetings and comparing them with the other party’s. Certainly, Labour’s huge crowd at Castille on 1 May when the surprise election was announced was impressive, compared to which the PN’s was, as Chris Cardona quipped, a corner meeting.

The PN then persisted in choosing rather narrow streets for holding its Sunday meetings, while the PL went for wider venues. But then the PN surprised everyone by the size of its last meeting, the one held on the Granaries on Thursday, which competed with the equally huge crowd the PL had had at the same place just a few days before.

Whatever the final result, it cannot be denied that Simon Busuttil has infused PN supporters with a new wave of enthusiasm that was completely absent in 2013. The old spirit of 2003 – and that of 1987 – was back, expressed today by the children of the 1987 and 2003 supporters.

It could well be that Labour peaked too early. The massive margin the PL enjoyed in all the surveys may have made its supporters too sure of victory. I know of PL supporters who went ahead with their travel plans and did not vote. And although massive numbers of jobs were handed out, and although the Government Gazette had page after page of declarations backdating promotions already given in 2013 to – for example – 2003, and although PL candidates were running after people offering them anything they wanted, there were also others who were not satisfied and who expressed their anger on the social media for all to see.

Such expressions of anger attracted a swift response from the PL teams. Others have complained bitterly of the unsolicited messages they have received from candidates, as well as telephone calls. This is still a mystery to me. As of Friday evening, when I am writing this, I can count three messages from Michael Farrugia, and one each from Alleanza Bidla and Franco Mercieca. And on the land-line I received a call from the PN and immediately cut it off. Others may be less lucky.

I have no idea where they got my number from but it is clear they have no idea who I am. Michael Farrugia is a long-time friend, along with Toni Abela, but his message to me was a cut-and-paste one addressed to ‘Emmanuel’.

Time and time again I am completely sceptical about the usefulness or otherwise of such a wasted effort – and expenditure. Speaking of expenditure, the parties have been bleeding themselves dry to get people to come to Malta from all corners of the world. For while we may think voters are brought back from places such as Brussels and Luxembourg, in reality they are even being brought back from the Far East. This makes a mockery of the electoral process and the sooner it is abolished, the better.

For all our posing, it is only inside the polling booth that we are really ourselves. And until that happens, no one can say which side we have come down on. I say this with regard to the people at mass meetings, especially the PL ones seeing that they are in power, but it can also be said of all sides.

Had anyone asked me a week ago, I would have predicted a diminished Labour win with, say, some 6,000 majority. This would have been a sour victory for Labour for it would have meant the 36,000 majority in 2013 has been whittled down to 6,000. And rather than making Simon Busuttil step down, it would have given him greater encouragement in the next legislature.

But I am now sensing a widespread anger, and not just among PN supporters, at the Joseph Muscat style of leadership, which, as he himself admits, has left much to be desired. There is anger that we as a nation have slipped back to a pre-1987 style of government; anger at the international repercussions of the many scandals we have had; anger also (as in 2013 with regard to Lawrence Gonzi) at the PM’s and ministers’ relentless domination of the news. All this and all the details about the Panama Papers and Egrant and Pilatus Bank business can, in my opinion, lead to a PN or Forza Nazzjonali win today.

 

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