The countdown to May 25th has begun, as the political parties really begin to gear up their party structures and mobilise their loyal members in preparation for the local council, and more importantly, the European Parliament elections.

This year will mark the first time that local council elections will be held for all localities at the same time. It will also be the first time 16-year-old will vote in MEP elections.

It’s been nearly two years since the general elections back in 2017, when the Labour Party won by a 35,000 vote majority (around 55% of the vote), and the Nationalist Party does not seem to be doing any better this time round. Indeed this election is Adrian Delia’s first electoral test as leader of the Nationalist Party.

Recent mid-April surveys in sections of the press show that the Labour Party would receive around 42% of the vote, while the PN would receive 25%. A survey by a different news outlet placed the Labour Party as receiving 59% of the vote, and the PN 37%. There are still a large percentage of undecided voters, and it is still early days so the final exact result cannot be predicted. However, it seems highly unlikely that the PN will keep its third seat in the MEP elections.

Back in January 2018, PN Secretary General Clyde Puli had indicated that Delia would stay on, no matter the result in these upcoming elections. Should the PN see a sizable loss comparable to the last general election result however, it remains to be seen whether the internal PN stalwarts would allow Delia to stay on, or put enough political pressure on him to step down.  Certainly this election will be a test of Delia’s leadership capabilities, and trust among the populace.

 

PN’s fragile state

Delia has seen quite a bit of controversy since becoming PN Leader, starting off with accusations surrounding a London property belonging to his former client and funds passing through accounts, to his marital accusations and issues. While Delia has always remained adamant that he has done nothing wrong, making this an election about the leaders would most likely be a mistake for Delia, with PN supporters seemingly more unforgiving when it comes to scandals within the party than their PL counterparts, especially when it comes to the party leader.

 As such making it about the individual candidates, or about the party itself, might be the best way forward. The issue for the PN is that Prime Minister Joseph Muscat will most likely, as he has done in the past, make it a race about the Leaders which would not leave the PN much room to manoeuvre in that situation. Delia also needs to focus on keeping a unified party during the campaign. As seen in recent past, The PN is in a fragile and fractured state internally, and the slightest issue could see the cracks widen yet again. That would most definitely be bad news for PN candidates across the board.

In addition the results for the PN, in terms of electoral percentages, in the MEP and in the local council elections could be quite different from one another. There are candidates for the MEP elections for example, who very much appeal to those who are unhappy with the current leadership, and who might receive their votes. Yet those same voters might not vote for the PN in the local council elections as a statement.

 

PN retaining the third seat... unlikely

As for the possibility of retaining the third MEP seat, Clyde Puli back in 2018 was already preparing to cushion the potential blow. "You must look at how that third seat was won last time. The alphabet played a role when it came to the election, and so did the inheritance of votes. Every now and again you would have a candidate who receives a lot of votes, and not many votes pass to others and the other candidates fall. That is the numbers game in our electoral system, which is good as it is very democratic, but that game could end up being played. The concern was always there, It was a very tight race with Labour."

Pressed and asked whether he believes the PN can retain the three seats, Puli had said: "The fact that it is a tight race means one cannot say. You have a situation where you can get more votes than last time but still not hold on to that seat. So it is hard to say as it depends on who our candidates will be and on their political stature... that makes a difference."

However it does not seem like the PN have a chance of receiving more votes than the PL and the projections are against the PN. As such this clearly makes the Nationalist Party the underdog when compared to the Labour Party. It remains unclear what the PN would consider a victory at this stage.

The PN however do have a strong list of candidates. PN MEP Roberta Metsola is ahead of all other PN candidates. She has a strong history in the European Parliament and has always been popular among voters. Close behind however, is newcomer Frank Psaila. Psaila has long been a known face on Nationalist Party television. It is still too early to tell who will be elected from the candidates in the PN camp however, as such circumstances are difficult to predict at this stage. PN MEP David Casa is also contesting and as such the power of incumbency in that seat could play a role. Those Nationalist voters who are disheartened with Delia as leader might, potentially, still vote for Casa. Candidates Peter Agius, and MP David Stellini also have extensive experience in the European Union institutions. If they play to that strength they might be able to sway sections of the electorate. Francis Zammit Dimech currently occupies the third seat in the European Parliament, and as an experienced politician, could rise in the polls.

 

PL in a good position

In terms of the Labour Party, Prime Minister Joseph Muscat is in a very good position for the coming elections, with the PL standing strong in the surveys despite countless allegations of corruption.

The constant scandals do not seem likely to have a massive effect on the party by the upcoming MEP elections, however the toll of such allegations and scandals could begin to see issues for the party by the next general election with or without Muscat at the helm, given the damage to Malta’s international reputation and the potential actions which could be taken.

Prime Minister Joseph Muscat has long said that he would not spend more than two terms in politics, and rumours that he will be stepping down sometime after the MEP elections are in the air. Rumours have already begun to spread of potential leadership candidates vying for position within the party. This does not mean however, that the PL will not put up a united front for the coming MEP elections, and they most likely will especially given Muscat’s strong political support.

The PL has some very strong MEP candidates. Former Prime Minister and current MEP Alfred Sant is very likely to be elected, as is PL MEP Miriam Dalli. Sant has already announced that this will be his last election, and he has always had a strong showing in MEP elections. As for Miriam Dalli, Potentially heading into a leadership race just hot off the heels of a strong successful election campaign could solidify her position as a very strong future PL Leader. Of course she would have to contend with the likes of Deputy Prime Minister Chris Fearne, Transport Minister Ian Borg and PL MP Robert Abela, all of whom are rumoured favourites to also be eyeing the post.

The rest of the PL field still seems to be wide open, however some names are popping up more than others. Some such names are Josianne Cutajar and Alex Agius Saliba. While Alfred Sant, Miriam Dalli, Roberta Metsola and Frank Psaila are ahead in the polls, the real race is only just beginning and things could change quite quickly.

As for the local council elections, the PL will be gunning to make significant gains in councils in both Malta and Gozo, while the PN will need to fight to hang on to what they have.

 

Potential to see smaller parties gain momentum

As for the other parties, PD and AD can both potentially do well for their size. They are extremely unlikely to be in the running for an MEP seat, however could potentially set themselves up to keep growing as parties if they play their cards right. Both have good candidates for the Elections, such as AD’s Carmel Cacopardo who is a very respected name in Malta’s pro-environment movements. As for the Partit Demokratiku, Godfrey Farrugia’s recent surprise nomination for the MEP elections could see more votes go their way, given potential voter dissatisfaction with both major political parties and his position as a Maltese Member of Parliament. They could see more success in the local council elections than in the MEPs.