It almost feels like yesterday that Malta voted in a general election, but the country is now a year away from going to the polls again – this time for the European Parliament and local council elections.
The MEP elections see six people elected to represent Malta in the EP in Brussels and Strasbourg for the following five years.
It also tends to provide something of a litmus test for the government of the day – and it appears that this time, that will certainly be the case.
The Malta Independent on Sunday looks at what the defining debates of the electoral campaign may be, and what the prospects within each party are.
What could the defining debates be?
Every election campaign will have its defining debates and this one will be no different.
Rather than focusing on European issues, it’s highly likely that the MEP elections will simply be an extension of whatever topics are being debated locally.
The current topics dominating the headlines are ones which can be expected to sustain themselves into the coming year.
Environment is the first: there has been a significant civil society movement which is making its voice heard more and more on Malta’s deteriorating environment due to the construction sector. This is not a matter which looks like being solved any time soon, so we can expect to hear of it quite extensively in the next year and beyond.
Inflation is another point. The cost of living squeeze is being felt across Europe, and Malta is no different. The PL will point towards its continued subsidisation of fuel and energy which has kept prices stable, while the PN will point at the rising costs of basic items such as food as a means of criticising the government.
One cannot have an election campaign with the topic of government corruption coming up. The hospitals’ deal is the one which – at present – seems most likely to be one of the defining debates, particularly as the saga itself still isn’t over due to the appeals which have been lodged and due to the magisterial inquiry which is still looking into former Prime Minister Joseph Muscat over the deal.
The fight for the final seat
The fight in the MEP elections will be less about who wins the popular vote, but who wins the sixth seat in the European Parliament.
Currently, the PL holds four out of Malta’s six seats, while the PN holds the remaining two. Without a doubt, the PL will be aiming to hold onto those four seats, while the PN will be aiming to win back one of them.
Which party wins that final seat will not necessarily be dictated by who wins the majority of first count votes, but by how those votes will filter down to other candidates.
What does this mean in practice? Let’s take the 2014 MEP elections: the PL here achieved a majority of 33,677 votes over the PN in terms of first count votes. By the 30th count, however, it was the PN’s Therese Comodini Cachia who won the final seat by a measly 206 votes over now Gozo Minister Clint Camilleri.
In 2019, the PL achieved a majority of 42,656 votes over the PN in first count votes. That was enough of a majority for the PL – through Josianne Cutajar – to secure the final seat for themselves with 5,265 votes more than the next best PN candidate, Frank Psaila.
The latest polls are however showing the gap between the two parties being closer to the 15,000 to 20,000 vote mark, meaning that the vote transfer will be more important than ever when it comes to deciding where the final seat will go.
Who will emerge as the PL’s new top dog?
It is still too early to say what either party line-up will look like, but what is certain is that there is a void to be filled in the Labour Party’s list of candidates.
This is because Labour’s two best performers from the 2019 elections will not be contesting the elections in 2024.
Miriam Dalli, who polled a record number of 63,438 votes in 2019, is now a government minister, while former Prime Minister Alfred Sant, who polled 26,592 votes in 2019, will not contest again.
That leaves 90,030 votes which are up for grabs – and the fight for them will no doubt be an intense one.
Sitting MEPs Alex Agius Saliba, Josianne Cutajar and Cyrus Engerer will no doubt be aiming to capitalise – but there is plenty of space for a new candidate to enter the field and scoop up enough votes to even dethrone one of the current incumbents.
One such new candidate could be Steve Ellul. It is perhaps the worst kept secret that Ellul will be one of Labour’s candidates for the upcoming MEP elections, and he may stand to benefit from Dalli’s votes particularly.
This is due to the fact that Ellul has Dalli’s backing and has been appointed as Project Green CEO – a role of prominence leading the Labour government’s keynote electoral promise of a renewed push on green community spaces for the country and one which allows him to be consistently seen with Dalli.
Irrespective of who will be on the ballot sheet however, the PL is in an unfamiliar position. For the first time in a decade, the polls are showing the party suffering from a downturn in support.
A showing, which is weaker than the 2022 general election, could set some alarm bells ringing for the remaining three years within the party’s Mile End headquarters. On the flipside though, a strong showing like in 2022 would without question galvanise the party again – despite its current rough patch.
Will there be a ‘Metsola effect’ for the PN?
One can definitely argue that there is a lot at stake for the Nationalist Party in next year’s election.
While the party is nothing short of an underdog going into 2024, the fact remains that the PN has lost every single election since the 2009 MEP elections (and this includes general elections) by a margin no less than 33,000 votes.
The question to be answered in 2024 is simple, though: will the PN be capable of capitalising on the chinks that are appearing in the PL’s armour?
Both of their MEPs – Roberta Metsola and David Casa – have been confirmed as candidates, in line with the party’s statute, although neither has launched any electoral campaign thus far.
Metsola’s stock has undoubtedly increased over the past five years: her service as the President of the European Parliament will see her be in the hot seat right up until the 2024 elections and her conduct in a difficult time for Europe, particularly in view of the war in Ukraine, has galvanised the European Union as a whole.
Can the Nationalist Party have some sort of “Metsola effect” to help the party gain more votes? That’s one of the questions which could play a part in the final make-up of seats.
Casa meanwhile has been representing the PN in the European Parliament ever since the first MEP election Malta had in 2004, and has carried out important work ever since, with the most recent being his leadership of a work-life balance directive which has seen minimum standards set for paternity leave across the bloc.
But will he be able to maintain enough support to get elected in an environment where PN voters – at least in the 2022 general election – seem to favour newer candidates?
So far the party has also confirmed Peter Agius and David Agius as candidates. Both enjoy some stature: Peter Agius due to the fact he has effectively been campaigning ever since before the 2019 election and David Agius due to his history within the internal echelons of the party.
This may be an MEP election and not a general election, but there is actually a lot at stake for the party and its leadership.
By voting day, Bernard Grech will have been in the party hot seat for close to four years. The excuse of there being a honeymoon period or no time to work in or prepare will be long gone, and yet another poor result may prompt renewed questions on whether Grech is the right man for the job.
Realistically, anything less than the party winning back that third seat may be seen as yet another failure.
Who can rock the apple cart?
If there is ever a time for someone to rock the proverbial apple cart, this is probably it.
MaltaToday’s most recent political survey shows that 20.8% of the electorate does not want to vote, while a further 14.7% of it is still not sure who it will vote for. The same survey found that 34.1% of the electorate doesn’t trust either of the two major political party leaders.
This, coupled with the fact that people are usually more likely to use the MEP elections for a protest vote – one needs to only look at the 8,238 votes which Norman Lowell achieved for Imperium Europa in 2019 as an example, means that there is a chance for someone to upset the apple cart.
The question however is, who stands to upset the apple cart?
The most obvious option is Malta’s third party: ADPD.
The Green party has promised much at times, but ultimately always failed to inspire when it came to voting day.
An interesting variable is that the party is now under new leadership. Sandra Gauci rose to some degree of fame through her video blogs on social media. She contested the 2022 general elections and could have made it to Parliament had the new gender corrective mechanism not applied to just the two major parties. She became party leader this year, so it remains to be seen what she will bring to the table and what impact it will have – if any – come voting day next year.
Another possibility comes in the unlikely form of an independent candidate.
Former AD leader Arnold Cassola has made a career – especially in the last few years – of being a nuisance to the government. His social media page is incredibly active, pointing out injustices ranging from the small to the large.
This is not to say that Cassola had no political profile in the past: in the first European elections in 2004 he achieved 22,938 first count votes and would have been elected to the European Parliament if Malta had six seats like today, rather than five.
His popularity waned in the subsequent years, but his renewed profile as an independent candidate after his split with AD due to the party’s stance on abortion seems to have actually led to a boost in popularity.
Clues may lie in the results of last year’s general election: Cassola contested and received 899 votes across just two districts.
Those type of per-district results indicate he could improve substantially on his 2019 performance – by how much exactly, though, is still too soon to say.
We’re one year away from the election and so much can change until 9 June 2024. What is sure is that we’re in for another battle.