Cardinal Mario Grech is being named as the “European” who stands the biggest chance to become pope, according to an article in the Irish Times today.

“A European more likely to become pope is Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech (66), who has been central, as secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, to the ongoing synodal process initiated by Pope Francis,” the article, written by Patsy McGarry, says.

“He is also familiar with the Vatican, having served on the Roman Rota, and has been a bishop in Malta for more than 18 years. Coming from a small country is an advantage too, not least where geopolitics is concerned.”

One rival from Europe is Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdö (71), the article states. “Coming from a more traditional Catholic Church in Eastern Europe, yet acceptable to so-called liberals in the western Church, he was elected twice as president of the Council of Bishops’ Conferences of Europe. But it may still be too soon for another Eastern European, in the wake of John Paul II.”

The article goes on the list favourites from different continents, with the leading African papabile being Cardinal Peter Turkson (75), from Ghana and Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (66), former archbishop of Manila in Asia’s most Catholic country.

Currently, there are 241 cardinals, but just 136 are under 80 years old and have a vote.

A new pope needs a two-thirds majority of the maximum 120 cardinals who can vote in a conclave. Generally, when a consistory of new cardinals is announced, the number of eligible electors is above that for a time. By the end of next year, for instance, the current 136 cardinal electors will be down to 120, as the remaining 16 will be aged over 80 by then.

Of those current 136 cardinal electors, 52 are from Europe, 17 from North America (with US 11), five from Central America, 16 South America, 19 Africa, 23 Asia, and three from Oceania. The largest bloc of these by country is from Italy, which has 14 cardinals, followed by the US with 11, Spain with eight, Brazil and France with six, Canada, Portugal and Poland with four each, Argentina and Germany with three, and Peru, Mexico, Britain, Switzerland, Nigeria, Tanzania with two each.

Pope Francis, 87, was named pope in 2013 after the abdication of Pope Benedict XVI.

The full article may be found here