I had been arguing all along with friends during the run up to the British election that while the outcome of the election proper was a foregone conclusion, the aftermath would prove to be more interesting.

Given the erosion of a number of Labour votes, given the Tories’ unelectability with Howard at the helm, given Blair’s statement that this will be his last legislature as PM and given the Liberal Democrats’ conviction that this would be one of their best performances ever, I am quite sure that we are in for some surprises.

Although Blair might have already decided when to make his glorious exit from the premiership role, if he has not, I think that this could be heavily influenced by the shape of things to come – particularly the actual performance of the third Labour government.

While expecting his transatlantic ties to remain strong, I also expect less adventurism from the Blair administration, particularly when recalling that the UK was engaged in three wars during the previous two terms.

On one hand, Labour scored a historic victory in the sense that it won three consecutive terms, while on the other hand its sharply reduced majority needs to be addressed.

This could prove to be a blessing in disguise for the Labour Party as it will shed some of its arrogance, hopefully rely less on its spin-doctors and focus more on a centrist social democrat agenda where such issues as public services – mainly education and health – and the poverty issue will be addressed head on.

Had there not been the understanding that the premiership would eventually pass to Gordon Brown, I fear that Labour would have still won but with an even slimmer majority.

Irrespective of whether Blair will remain at the helm for the whole legislature or else step down mid-term or later I believe that Brown’s clout and stock are expected to rise in the coming months.

It would be interesting were some political scientists to determine the actual support Blair as a politician actually enjoys.

In spite of their improved performance, I consider the Tories to have remained unelectable with Howard at the helm. With his political baggage and lacklustre performance in and out of the House, he is unlikely to win them many votes from the middle ground of the electorate.

Some people argue that general elections are about the next five years, not about the past five. But there is no doubt that Blair’s wars, and certain political half-truths that saw the light of day, dented Labour’s prospects considerably, particularly when recalling the buoyant economy Britain has had for the last few years – in sharp contrast with the eurozone countries.

There is still one big question mark looming on the horizon: the outcome of the Constitutional Treaty referendum in France.

A negative vote could impact even more strongly on an already eurosceptic British electorate, thus denting Blair’s image even further.

Without necessarily becoming an old-style Labour Party, I feel that Labour can continue to project its New Labour image without coming across with certain voters as a party that has abandoned its traditional values and the working class.

If proof was ever needed of the loss of Labour support and the swing to the Liberals, one merely had to read through the 2 May edition of The New Statesman, an intellectual magazine that has never hidden its pro-Labour leanings.

Most of the staffers and personalities interviewed all showed a drift from Labour to the Lib-Democrats.

The worst thing that could have happened to Labour was to win a big victory.

This would have heightened the arrogant streak of certain elements in the party while possibly being used by Blair acolytes as justification for his over-indulgent warmongering.

Some people have called this election the referendum Tony Blair never wanted – the verdict on his leadership – but in retrospect I feel that, in the final analysis, he was shored up by his own party which still commands a high degree of respectability.

A commentator recently remarked that, during the election campaign, he did not find a single candidate who was advertising Blair’s name as an electoral asset for himself, in spite of the fact that one has to admit that on certain issues Labour had “collective culpability” rather than their being purely Blairite mistakes.

The only thing that saved Labour was an even greater antipathy towards Howard than Blair himself might have mustered.

The moment Blair returned to Downing Street, the main question being posed was when will he vacate it.

Blair will have to show more sensitivity, not only towards his voters and the electorate at large but also towards his own party, particularly parliamentary group members.

He cannot afford to leave room for splinter Labour factions, as this could dent Labour’s majority even more in future, although with Brown at the helm there could be a new reversal of fortunes.

John Kampfner, a regular commentator on the Labour government, remarked in the run up to the elections that election day will mark either the beginning of the end of the Blair era, or the beginning of the end of Labour’s hopes of becoming the natural party of government.

It could prove to be neither.

With Brown waiting in the wings, and Blair having all the time in the world to decide when to bow out, the prospects of Labour remaining the natural party of government remain very strong.

Several defectors to the Liberal Democrat party claimed that they would have voted Labour, had Brown been leader.

What convinced me during the election campaign that the Tories never stood a chance of being elected into power is that recent surveys did not show any positive movement towards them as a would-be governing party.

I suspect that we will also have less presidentialism from Tony Blair during the new legislature, even though he will continue to carry the main responsibility for communicating policies and values.

If one wants to solicit any consolation from this electoral victory it is that although many tried to turn the vote into a referendum on the question of whether one trusted Blair to tell the truth, the man outperformed Howard on education and health, taxation, the economy, Europe and even on terrorism.

I am confident that if Blair steps down he will definitely do so neither during the G8 or EU Presidency or before.

Labour MP Chris Mullin perhaps summarised the recent election best when he claimed that some people seem to have thought that they can have a Labour government without voting Labour!

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Leo Brincat is the main opposition spokesman on Foreign Affairs and IT