Hot on the changes reported recently in the GDP data for the past 10 years, where adjustments reportedly made on the basis of new information and new classification methods being used meant that slightly lower figures for GDP growth were registered in the past 10 years, comes a similar revision in the Labour Force Survey published last week.
Last year’s comparable LFS for July to September had said the number of people holding down a full time job stood at 133,069, a slight decrease from the previous year’s 135,533.
But, according to revised figures published in the latest LFS, there were 134,799 in full time employment last year.
NSO said that in September there were 138,017 people holding down a job, an unprecedented and dramatic increase in full time employment over a period of one year, the first time in recent years that such a dramatic increase in full time employment was registered with the creation of 3,218 new jobs. Had last year’s figures been left in place, the increase would have been even bigger. And the decrease that was registered last year in full time jobs would have been slightly smaller.
It may be that the two changes – that in GDP and in the Labour Force – are related, but it may also be that they are completely unrelated and arrived at independently. Be that as it may, these changes have introduced a climate of uncertainty, not just among the wider public but also, sources have told this newspaper, in government circles and NSO itself, which has started to look on its output as more of a “work in progress” type than the former innate trustworthiness.
For while the introduction of EU and Eurostat systems is accepted by one and all as an improvement, local observers have certified the great steps the NSO has taken over the past years, even before Eurostat membership, to improve its standards and output. This is now, in a way, being undermined by the constant small changes of data, which, while not changing matters by much, have introduced a climate of uncertainty into the whole area of statistics and figures.
On the other hand, it may be that the prevailing economic climate in Malta, which is restricted to a few FEMA professors and lecturers and some journalists, is still not attuned to the climate where figures are constantly being upgraded and rechecked.
And while in practical terms it makes little difference whether there were 133,069 holding down a full time job in July-September 2005 or 134,799, it does make a difference whether a cumulative Lm108 million was shaved off the GDP growth over the past 10 years or not. Did we have the growth we were told we had or did we not? One must also consider that Lm108 million is nothing less than 22 per cent of the total growth registered.
So the question needs an answer once again: did the NSO create those 3,218 new jobs or did the economy do so?