It may seem hard to imagine right now, but very soon the Maltese people will no longer be discussing who will win the imminent election, but whether the government is responsible for the steep rises in the price of food and fuel, two mainstays of day to day life.

In other words, conversation will move very swiftly from Sant and Gonzi to bread and butter cum hobz biz-zejt issues in the most literal sense of those words. More to the point, whoever wins the next election is going to have a rough ride initially.

The next prime Minister may well even rue the day he became PM (the only thing we can be sure of right now is that it will be a he!).

A country that put Alfred Sant’s hopefully very temporary period of ill-health before the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in its news headlines is a country that believes above all that Malta is somehow a bubble immune to the problems of the world, unless a calamity strikes and we start to send offerings of help.

Our media is not properly discussing the imminent rise in food prices as is the media of Western Europe. The public, in other words, is not being prepared and it should be.

This is strange not least when we remember the political implications of even a rise in the price of bread by a cent or two. Food is central to the lives of the Maltese, (as is more than amply evidenced by the local girth and the appalling statistics which render the people of the smallest country in the EU the fatties of Europe) and food prices are watched over, compared and haggled over like hawks.

So steep food price rises may be blamed on the euro but it is a worldwide phenomenon, also partly linked to oil price rises but mainly to supply and demand. In the past we have always been able to grow more food when it got too expensive.

Now though there are about eight billion people on this planet. Even more seriously whereas an acre of land might have produced a ton of wheat 50 years ago it now produces three but we can’t make it produce six. All the increase in production has come about, for many reasons but not least the amount of artificial fertilisers we use, but that amount can’t easily be doubled again. Even if we could find more land, water is in short supply too. What we are eating is also putting a huge strain on the planet, too much meat as one example. Less food is also being produced as more and more farmers use their lands to produce fuels which are today powering cars. Changing this worldwide will be as successful as trying to persuade the farmers of Afghanistan not to grow very profitable drug crops. In other words it is not going to work.

Food and fuel price rises will lead to the poor getting poorer. Why aren’t we talking about this?

As the author of a report called Robbing Peter to pay Paul, written for Save the Children said, “Just as wealth generates wealth, so poverty begets poverty.” Of course there are very many people who pretend to be poor but the truth is that for those who genuinely only live off their state pension, the rise in food is going to hit very hard indeed, and cost of living adjustments which come out of taxation will have to compensate. But this is not only a problem locally.

The boss of Marks and Spencers recently said that he had never seen the UK so polarised. “The rich are so very, very rich. The West End can’t get enough diamonds. But the poor are getting poorer.” These are unusual sentiments from High Street retailers but they are being very badly hit by overstretched pockets, low wages and ultimately not enough spending power from the masses. All the credit is starting to come home to roost and I think this picture of extremes of wealth and poverty is starting to mirror itself in Malta too.

And an article in The Guardian recently listed six areas where the poor are going to be hit and can’t get away from it. These were fuel, food, tax, phone, household goods and driving .These may not all replicate in Malta as our small size, our smaller heating bills, our lack of local taxes all soften the blows experienced by our European neighbours, but make no mistake, anyone on basic salary of less than Lm8,000 and with a family to support is going to feel the pinch this year.

Electoral manifestos need to factor what is happening to food and fuel. They probably will not because in Malta politicians have to promise heaven on earth and a Church trained and indoctrinated society likes to believe politicians can deliver even the undeliverable. So whoever you vote for times are going to be tighter this year. I wonder which political party will admit that to its electorate in the coming weeks.

[email protected]