During the General Election campaign, Xarabank commissioned Dial It to carry out a series of four surveys to collect the public’s views on the build up to polling day.
This report summarises the four surveys, conducted by Prof. Mario Vassallo, who devised the methodology, and held on four consecutive weeks in February and March. The last one was conducted from the Tuesday to the Thursday immediately prior to the election on 8 March.
The more specific objectives for this study were:
(a) to conduct a quantitative study to discover which political party the Maltese perceived as most convincing;
(b) to establish what the Maltese thought about the performance of the outgoing government and the likelihood that the MLP would actually implement its promises if returned to power;
(c) to identify the issues that the Maltese thought would prevail during the election campaign and
(d) to collect information on the voting patterns of the Maltese and their intentions for the general election.
Each of the studies is based on a set of 600 telephone interviews, conducted at the homes of interviewees, with a representative sample of 600 Maltese registered voters who have a telephone installed at home. Statistically, at the 95 per cent confidence level, the maximum sampling error for this type of study is estimated to be +/- 4.2 per cent (on issues with an expected 50/50 split points) To reduce the maximum 4.2 per cent (as per above points) to a maximum of 3 per cent, the sample size would have to be increased to 1,100, which is not advisable for this kind of project.
Interviewing for the first study was conducted between Monday and Wednesday, 11 and 13 February; the second was conducted between 18 and 20 February; the third between 25 and 27 February and the fourth and last between 4 and 6 March.
The findings of the studies are as follows:
Appraisal of the persuasive power of the parties at present
The very first question interviewees were asked was about the performance of the political parties at present. They were asked which of the four parties that have already declared that they will contest the next general elections is the most persuasive.
The figures showed that the PN was being perceived as being more persuasive than the MLP by more electors in all four studies (1st study 35.8 pr cent, 2nd Study 37.5 per cent, 3rd Study: 37.8 per cent, 4th Study 37.5 per cent) and maintained practically the same level of persuasiveness during the entire four week period. The MLP was also perceived to be persuasive by more electors over the first two weeks, but lost in the second and third week (1st study 29 per cent, 2nd Study 29.8 percent, 3rd Study: 28 per cent and 4th Study: 26.3 per cent). While the PN maintained its persuasiveness at an almost even level, the MLP reduced its levels, even if minimally, among those who disclosed their views. The level of the minor parties was very low, but even on this question the number of people who would not disclose what they thought was very high, and in all four instances amounted to around one-third of the electorate.
Appraisal of the performance of PN in government
The next question sought to examine the level of satisfaction with the Nationalist Government while in office. A 100-point Satisfaction Index was worked out on the basis of the findings.
100-Point Satisfaction Index
28.42 27.99 33.62 31.32
In the above table it should be noticed that the PN lost slightly in the index from 28.42 points to 27.99 from a maximum of 100 points in the second study, rose to 33.62 points in the third week, but again lost 2.30 points in the last week of the campaign.
Confidence that the MLP will implement its promises if returned to power
The next question sought to establish the confidence the public had in the MLP delivering on its promises. The findings are summarised in a
standardised 100-point MLP Confidence Index.
100-Point Satisfaction Index
5.16 0.69 0.96 -3.12
This Index reveals that the confidence electors had that the MLP in government would deliver on its promises was always very low, and actually fell from the 5.16 points registered in the first study to 0.69 points in the second study. It increased again to 0.96 points in the third study but decreased radically to a negative Index of -3.12 points in the last week of the campaign. The same PN Confidence Index, measured only in the fourth of this set of studies, was registered at 21.5 points on the 100-point Index.
Main campaign issues
When respondents were asked what they thought were the main issues that would dominate the election outcome, a wide range of replies was given spontaneously. Respondents could obviously list more than one specific issue and the full list contains 27 issues.
The main issues largely repeated themselves over the four studies, even though no prompting was allowed and the issues were spontaneously given by the participants. It can be noticed, however, that there were interesting shifts in emphasis, quite obviously in response to the varying emphasis made by the speakers and the proposals that emerged.
It is also interesting to note the difference across gender, for example with education, which initially was much more the concern of females, with 23.9 per cent vs 14.2 per cent among males in the first study, then becoming 19.7 per cent among males and falling slightly to 22.6 per cent among females in the second study, and falling again to 18.3 per cent among males but increasing again among females to 29.2 per cent in the third study.
By the fourth week, this issue received relatively less attention, even though it remained the issue most spontaneously mentioned. This contrasted sharply with, for example, the increasingly more frequent mention of “corruption” as the campaign progressed. The dynamic of the campaign itself is clearly reflected in the issues that came spontaneously to mind when respondents were specifically asked to reflect on current events of this kind.
Gonzi vs Sant for prime minister
The respondents were asked whom they would prefer as their prime minister.
The findings show that Dr Gonzi retained the lead as the “better prime minister”, even though he marginally lost 0.5 per cent, from 47 per cent in the first study to 46.5 per cent in the second and once more to 45.5 per cent in the third study. He ended the campaign with 45.8 per cent saying he was the better potential prime minister. Dr Sant, on the other hand, gained in popularity from 30.5 per cent to 32.8 per cent over the period in between the first two studies and to 30.5 per cent in the third study. At the end of the campaign he had lost ground again to 28.8 per cent.
Popular forecasts on who would win
A set of questions was asked on views as to (a) who was considered to be the likely winner, (b) which party was most commonly wished to be the winner, (c) past voting pattern and (d) voting intentions.
The MLP retained the lead over the four studies regarding the party perceived to be more likely to be the winner at the next elections (1st study 32 per cent, 2nd Study: 34.3 per cent, 3rd Study: 27.2 per cent, 4th Study: 29 per cent), but the proportion of the electorate who ascribed to this view declined as the campaign progressed. The PN was thought to be the likely winner by a lower percentage: 1st Study: 22.3 per cent, 2nd Study: 23.2 per cent, 3rd Study: 20 per cent and 4th Study: 15.2 per cent.
The PN gained some points in the second week, but continued to lose over the last two weeks of the campaign. It was interesting that over the first two studies, both of the major parties registered an increase, but the number of people who did not commit themselves even on this issue remained high. In the third study, the number of non-committals increased to 50.3 per cent and to even more – 52 per cent – in the fourth week.
Which party would you prefer to win the election?
The most striking aspects of the replies to this question was the much lower percentage of electors who did not want to disclose their views on the one hand, and on the other, the relatively higher number of people who preferred the PN to be the winner, starting at 39.3 per cent in the first study; 40.2 per cent in the second study, through to 40.5 per cent in the third study and with 40.8 per cent in the final week of the election. This clearly indicated that a good number of those with a preference for the PN were afraid that their wishes would not materialise, and their non-disclosure on other questions was extensively related to this fear.
General conclusions
Despite the known limitations of socio-scientific research, its usefulness – if conducted with scrupulous scientific rigour – is beyond doubt. In practice, as well, it provides a very useful tool by which society can reflect on itself, and a mirror by which people, as actors, can look at themselves and at the consequences of their actions in society at large.
This set of four studies clearly indicates that
interesting shifts can occur even over a short period of time. The relative popularity of all the parties changed over time, mainly because more people made up their minds, or found it easier to disclose what they thought, but also in reflection of the dynamics created as the electoral campaign
developed.
More specifically, of the two main contestants for the post of prime minister, Dr Gonzi clearly appeared to have more support overall than Dr Sant among Maltese electors. The difference between the two candidates remained significant, especially since it was recorded at a higher level than the difference recorded for the relative popularity of the two main parties, as expressed in the explicit revelation of for which party the individuals interviewed intended to vote.
The main issues of this election were many, but consensus on a small set was widespread. Some issues had been known for some time (eg the cost of living), while others (such as the proposed introduction of a “reception class”; the proposal to reduce income tax ceilings and the proposal to remove income tax from overtime) emerged as part of the dynamic of the election campaign itself.