Going by what is said, written and discussed by most Maltese, we are still living in cloud-cuckoo land. The world around us is falling apart and we are still thinking we will inevitably be safe.
True, our banking system is still strong, with strong regulatory systems and fundamentals, but the storm out there has already brought down banks and institutions that we used to perceive as almighty and everlasting.
True, too, Iceland’s terrible situation shows us where, but for the grace of God, we could have been had we, like them, refused to enter the EU and proudly stayed out of the euro.
But we foolhardily seem to think that we will escape the financial tsunami unscathed. We are prize fools if we think that – people in countries in a recession will not go on holiday, buy our products, invest in second homes, and what have you.
Then there is the price of oil to consider too.
And in the coming weeks the government will present us with its budget for next year, inevitably being already measured by what it promised in the election campaign, plus more sweeties which some are demanding, such as GWU’s demand of €58 (Lm25) for every person given the higher than expected inflation rate.
There is a quite curious sense of unreality when one goes to a Tonio Fenech presentation in preparation for the Budget and one hears of Vision 2015 in the midst of all that is happening; even Mr Fenech himself, coming straight from a Euro Group meeting, remarked about it.
We have been hearing about Vision 2015 for ages and ages. The shockwaves from all over the world should get us to focus on how we can escape unscathed, or with as little damage as possible. Whatever people throw at the government, its prime duty now is to steer the ship of State through such turbulent waters and, if necessary, throw Vision 2015 overboard or put it on a back burner for the time being. Ditto about the fiscal commitments it made about balancing the budget, as other members of the Euro Group are patently doing.
The impression one gets is that the government itself does not have a coherent plan so far on how the country is to tackle the waves crashing on its shores. In the coming weeks, as the reality of the tragedy being enacted out there seeps in, people will be looking to the government for leadership. For all the protracted consultations and public hearings, this reality has come crashing down on us. It must take priority.
The government cannot talk to the country with two voices: one voice speaking of Vision 2015 and the other ratcheting up the price of oil to be commensurate with the international fluctuating price of oil.
As the country swings into Budget atmosphere, people expect the government to reassure them. Too many people have already fallen below the poverty line, despite all the boasting. Already many in the middle class, for all their spending, have empty pockets at the end of the month. Already many can see that inflation has not gone away. The government, on its part, is realising it can never get the deficit down to the target it set because as revenues shoot up during a boom, so too they plummet in a recession. It must realise it cannot push things too far. And most importantly, it must, as Mr Fenech himself pointed out last week, keep a balanced approach.
This is crucial in how the government intends to approach the country. All in all, though in a rather fragmentary and piecemeal pattern, the government is making its proposals – that’s thesis for you.
The constituted bodies, some volubly, some too volubly, none silently, have made their points. That’s antithesis.
So now the scene is set for the real negotiations to begin, hopefully without histrionics, one-man-uppances, threats or whatever, to arrive at synthesis.
On its part, the government must insist on keeping to its fiscal targets as much as possible, on not allowing the precipitous rise in the price of oil, or food, or whatever, to bring the whole country to ruin. It must also phase in the removal of State aid and subsidies, even though it is doing it far too late in the day.
On their part, the constituted bodies, each in its own field, must push the government to remove the inefficiencies in corporations such as Enemalta, at the same time as the public is being made to pay for oil and its derivatives regardless of their cost. They must also insist that more, far more, is done to combat inflation without the government’s pitiable mantra that it’s coming from abroad. But they would not be right if they were to ask for hefty financial compensation, as that would, once again, throw the whole system out of kilter.
Balance is the name of the game. These are very difficult times, and greater countries have suffered far more than we have suffered so far. The first line of defence must be that what we see happening in other countries we must not allow to happen here. Even so, we will suffer the after-effects of what is happening in our core markets, so we must prepare ourselves for that.
And the government’s opening and closing statement must be, and this is another issue, that the country is paying through its nose to see the problem of the dockyard removed from the Maltese scene once and for all. But we must not allow other dockyards to creep in.