PIGS. What a marvelous, if slightly unflattering acronym for those concerned. PIGS is the acronym that analysts and commentators have coined to refer to the deficit crisis which has hit Portugal, Greece, Ireland and Spain.
The crux of the issue is that these four countries are paying the price for past transgressions. In the case of Greece, it was fudging figures to cover the massive 12 per cent deficit that the country has racked up through years of living beyond their means and a workforce with a very low productivity to wage ratio.
Ireland had a booming economy – the growth of which was unsustainable and now the bubble has burst. Mass unemployment is the order of the day and consumer credit-fuelled growth has ground to a halt – bringing the Celtic Tiger to its knees.
Portugal, like Greece, has its productivity issues and this, coupled with long term employment and the belief that the government could spend its way out of recession has landed the Atlantic seaboard nation in the soup.
Spain was the last country to be added to the list, and the message coming out of Madrid, is that “Spain does not have it that bad” compared to the other three. Of course, all these countries make up part of the eurozone – the rules of which state that deficit must not exceed three per cent of GDP and their performance in tackling their deficits will impact on the credibility and strength of the euro.
But it seems that Spain in particular, will not own up to the fact that its finances are in dire straits. The Spanish will attempt to cut their ballooning 11.7 per cent deficit, but analysts have already said that compared to the Greek austerity package, what is being offered is “tame”. In addition, there are worries that Spain – the fourth largest economy in the eurozone – has based its recovery plan on the premise that it will register economic growth soon.
This does not ring true, especially when the country has been labelled as the only world major economy not to have registered back to back growth since the financial crisis began to abate.
Spain proposes to cut e50 billion from its budget – but when one compares the measure the Greeks, who have announced a freeze on civil service pay, petrol, tobacco and other taxes among many other measures, one begins to see what the analysts are saying.
Spain still has a massive problem when it comes to unemployment, particularly institutionalised unemployment in rural areas. The belief that governments can spend their way out of recession has really been put paid to in this case. Spain racked up most of its budget deficit by spending on projects which were aimed at creating vast numbers of jobs. It backfired. Not only did unemployment figures remain the same – the money was ill spent and resulted in the deficit that the country sees today.
It is unlikely that the PIGS will be bailed out by the rest of the eurozone – anchored by France and Germany. But Malta will do well to keep its ear to the ground to listen for any potential developments. We are but a tiny segment of the eurozone, but we are members none the less. Any damage to the euro will of course impact us – but being what we are, our impact in tackling any ensuing crisis will be negligible. The euro weathered the recession. Is it also strong enough to weather a self-inflicted attack on its own credibility? If only pigs could fly.