The most spectacular news to come out of the European Union’s marathon meeting last week to ‘stop the rot’, was not the €750bn fund, but the complete U-turn which was performed by the European Central Bank.
Let us start by putting it into context. Greece has fallen – it is only artificially propped up. Next on the list were Portugal and Spain as credit rating agencies rubbed their hands in glee, downgrading ratings as a matter of routine – this is a clear conflict of interest.
One cannot trade the debts of countries while at the same time rating them. This led to a call from the EU to set up its own credit rating agency. In the meantime, Europe realised (finally) that what the media had been saying all along was right – this was no longer about Greece, it was about the future of the euro and its possible collapse. Something was needed, and for the first time since the bubble burst, European leaders pre-empted the markets in announcing this massive security mechanism. The news sent the markets soaring, the euro gained against other currencies and confidence was restored. It did not last. Only yesterday, market euphoria began to evaporate and trading slowed down. The real indicator – oil – was also down. In other words, the markets are still not convinced. And now we need to ask why.
If one looks at the situation thoroughly and looks at what the European Central Bank did, it becomes clearer. The ECB, and its quite irate President Jean Claude Trichet (normally unflappable) announced that the bank would be buying up eurozone bonds on an “undisclosed” scale. This announcement was made just minutes after the 3.15am announcement of the fund – which begs the question – was leverage put on the ECB?
Buying up eurozone bonds was never meant to be on the agenda for the ECB – it was, until very recently unthinkable. Trichet himself has denied that the ECB succumbed to pressure to buy up the bonds (which in reality are deemed a risk by the commercial markets) and he also said that the decision to do so was taken after a vote which approved the plan by an ‘overwhelming’ majority. The ECB is a stickler – it always has been and that is what kept us on the straight and narrow for a good decade. The fact that there was an ‘overwhelming’ majority, does in fact show that there was a degree of opposition to the plan to buy up eurozone bonds.
The ECB has long been proud of its ‘independence’, but it is still very unclear as to what prompted it to reverse tack in such a spectacular manner. The bank was, until just a few days ago, pushing its ‘exit strategy’, but this decision really has turned the matter on its head. It seems like a very odd attempt to make up for the disparity of monetary union and political union, by politicising the bank’s operations. The ECB will no doubt vehemently deny the ‘accusation’, but fact of the matter is that the bank was drawn into political discussions and has committed itself to a ‘political solution’ agreed on by European leaders.
This leading article is not criticising the move to buy up the bonds – it actually had a positive effect in boosting market trading. But it must be acknowledged that the rules – or rather the code of practice – have been rewritten. The ECB will find out (or admit if it already knows it), that once you are involved in the game, it is very hard to get out.
This could yet prove to be the eurozone’s master stroke, or its undoing. If contagion spreads, the ECB is now involved. It has used up liquidity to buy risky bonds. What if those bonds do not deliver?