A decade ago, The Economist came up with a heading and article that said that Germany was “the sick man of Europe”.

The Germans have not forgotten that slight, which still hurts. Whatever their real situation there, they put their minds to it and Chancellor Schroeder sacrificed his political career to bring in very important changes. Today, Germany is the strong man of Europe and has rediscovered its mission to lead Europe in these times of recession and doubts about the stability of the continental currency.

Going by the events of the past days, many might think Italy is now the sick man of Europe but one may beg to differ. All we are seeing in our neighbour is a country that has found the road back to economic sanity were it not for the personal ambition of one man alone whose real ambition is to enjoy parliamentary immunity as long as he lives, even if that means undermining a government and a programme approved not just by most Italians but also by Europe.

The really sick man of Europe is another country, equally a founding member of the EU – France. 2013 is thus the year in which either France finds its way back to health or the year in which France’s sickness drags the whole of Europe down with it.

France is a great country: its industry is right up there with the best of worldwide leaders. Research and development are promoted; French exports beat most of the rest of the world; its quality of life is very high. And yet, its competitiveness continues to be undermined; its trade unions are still too powerful, and now the people of France have chosen a government that tries to fly in the face of economic arguments. The recent declarations by ministers appear anti-business, almost like the sans culottes of the French Revolution.

Business confidence has thus plummeted and businessmen are fleeing. Comic actor Gerard Depardieu entertained many with his giving up of a French passort and moving to Belgium with its lower tax rate but he may have taken a risk too far by accepting Vladimir Putin’s offer of a passport and residence in Russia.

That is not an isolated case. David Cameron promised to roll out the red carpet to take on any French exiles and many companies, especially the mobile, high-tech, easy to pack and go have already relocated to London. No country, not even France, can afford to lose these people.

President Hollande is still adamant to keep to the path he has chosen and which the French people have approved. Jobs thus continue to be lost, investment goes elsewhere, the 35-hour week still reigns supreme  and ratings continue to be cut.

These past few days, the president and his team have tried to come up with a different tack but the fundamentals are still the same.

For people who love France and things French, this is all so deja vu. In 1981, Francois Mitterand came up with very much the same rabid anti-business sentiment and within two years France was facing its own collapse. Only then, Mitterand drastically changed tack and France survived.

This time, the timelines are shorter. And France is in the EU and subject, like all, to the same fiscal discipline. Over the past months, Hollande did try to lead a sort of revolt against the Teutonic insistence on austerity and discipline and argued for a growth pact but this has been resisted by those afraid that any relaxation will once again mean that the careful countries of the north have to pay for the profligacy of their colleagues in the South.

As the level of unemployed rises and rises (though not so much on the far higher levels of Greece and Spain) and as Hollande’s other commitment to bring France to a balanced budget faces the brick wall of reality, the rest of Europe looks on, very much interested in what’s going to happen. For what happens in France will have consequences for the rest of the continent.