Undoubtedly, one of the giants at last week’s conference organised by The Economist held at the Hilton was Jim O’Neill. But he was given a rather small bit part and he was completely miscast in the rather sorry discussion he was roped in.
Thanks to the organisers, Jim offered a fellow journalist and me a riveting half-hour tutorial on the world economy.
Jim O’Neill, retiring chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, is a British economist best known for coining BRIC, the acronym that stands for Brazil, Russia, India, and China – the four rapidly developing countries that have come to symbolise the shift in global economic power away from the developed G7 economies.
In 2010, he was named Chairman of Goldman Sachs’s Division of Asset Management, a newly created position in which O’Neill managed over $800 billion in assets by “leverag[ing]” his “global perspective on world markets”.
He continues to publish research regarding the global economy, in addition to coming up with innovative investment strategies for clients. His new appointment was regarded as a symbol of Goldman’s “efforts to reposition itself for Wall Street‘s post-crisis era”, one in which Goldman Sachs is “bullish“ about the fact that emerging markets are “the future” In 2011, he was included in the 50 Most Influential ranking of Bloomberg Markets magazine.
As of January, he is an Honorary Professor of Economics at the University of Manchester.
He has been called by the (UK) Independent as “the money man who coins a good phrase”. When he coined Brics to describe the burgeoning economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China back in 2001, it added a turbo boost to what was an already stellar career. The highly respected and rewarded economist was one of the stars of Goldman Sachs, the US investment bank long regarded as one of the elite firms of international finance.
The acronym was a simple way to help to describe the dynamic and transforming developments that were taking place in the world economy. Its simplicity helped even laymen and women to understand something of the complex changes that have become the dominant narrative of a generation.
And he has a new acronym. Mint. As in making a packet rather than the herb or confectionary. Mint is the catchy description to describe the next big economies to impact upon the world – Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey. He admits it was nearly Mist but they replaced South Korea for Nigeria after a BBC producer said that most people already thought South Korea was a world economic player. Nor is it completely new. The Minted nations have emerged from the Next 11, or N11, that his Goldman team came up with after Brics.
He is a lifelong fan of Manchester United F.C. and served as non-executive director from 2004 to 2005, before the club was returned to private ownership. On 2 March 2010, the Red Knights, a group of wealthy Manchester United fans believed to include O’Neill, confirmed interest in a possible takeover of the club. (Talking to us a week ago yesterday, he was already focused on today’s match against Liverpool)
Having retired from high finance last year, he has opted for something closer to public service and is chairing an independent commission on the future of UK cities – looking at how to make Britain less focused on London in order to promote higher levels of national growth and create a less divided nation. Comprising economists, academics and people from business, the commission will issue a final report in October, aiming to nudge all political parties into adopting radical ideas on devolution before the next election.
The European economy and, in particular, the Greek one, he told us, are showing signs of recovery. It is mostly due to Mario Draghi’s famous phrase that he is ready to do all it takes to save the economy.
But the European economy still faces structural challenges especially as regards inflation and fiscal policy.
He has been 33 years in finances and he can remember it was crises all the time. After each crisis, people come to believe there will not be any more crises but crises happen in finances all the time.
Today, people have become worried that Germany’s current account balance is twice that of China, although people do tend to exaggerate the importance of trade figures.
The coming British referendum on the EU intrigues him: people in Britain remain cool and polite when asked whether the UK should be in or out and polls have consistently shown it is between eighth and ninth topic in people’s minds, but if the British are presented with a simple referendum question whether Britain should be in or out of the EU, they will say Stay out.
The eurozone is focusing on the banking union but Jim is not so keen on this. It is true that banks have been one of the causes of the crisis because banks take their money to where it is most profitable and the crisis was caused when US banks did precisely that. Banks have also a large exposure, for instance, to shipping finance. But it would be a mistake to treat all banks on the same level like landesbanks, as if they were Goldman Sachs. There is no sense in treating them on the same level. Nor does it make sense to treat 17 different countries as if they were one.
As regards Malta, his suggestion is that with its geographical position, Malta must make the most of its connectiveness potential, just as Turkish Airlines is trying to do and as Emirates and Qatar Airlines do. Turkish Airlines serves more countries in Africa than any other airline in the world.