The IMF report, World Economic Outlook, published in April, provides a wide range of statistics on the current and predicted levels of world economic development for the years 2013, 2014, and 2015.

Subtitled “Recovery strengthens, remains uneven”, the report comments that the current world-wide recovery will get stronger, but that there remain “downside risks” to global growth, with the danger of any new volatility in the financial markets being a primary concern.

The IMF identify that at 2.4% Malta experienced the second highest level of real GDP growth (i.e. GDP growth rate after factoring in inflation) in the eurozone (and the fourth highest in the EU) which was significantly above the euro area average of -0.5%. Latvia had the highest level of real GDP growth for the EU (at 4.1%) while the lowest was experienced by Cyprus at -6%.

The IMF’s projections for 2014 are that Malta’s real GDP will grow at 1.8% for both 2014 and 2015, giving it the fifth highest growth rate for 2014, and the seventh highest for 2015. The projected eurozone averages for 2014 and 2015 are 1.2% and 1.5% respectively indicating that Malta is expected to grow faster than the eurozone overall. (The IMF give the growth rates for Europe as a whole as being 1.7% for 2014 and 1.9% for 2015, indicating that Malta will be growing at roughly the rate of Europe over the next two years.)

In terms of movements in consumer prices, the report shows that Malta had the equal sixth lowest level of inflation in the eurozone, with a 1% increase as opposed to a 1.3% increase of the euro area as a whole (and a 1.9% increase for Europe).

In 2013, out of the euro area, Greece experienced deflation of -0.9% while Estonia had the highest consumer price rises of 3.5%. Maltese inflation is then predicted to increase for 2014 and 2015, to 1.2% and 2.6% respectively, at which point Maltese inflation will be above the euro area average (of 0.9% and 1.2%) for both years. Malta is predicted to have the euro area’s second highest level of inflation for 2015. As a note a “good” level of inflation is generally considered to be one that is low (but greater than zero), and steady.

The current account balance, as a percentage of GDP, was 0.9% for Malta in 2013 report the IMF, which was the eighth highest figure for the eurozone, and below the euro area average of 2.3%.

At 10.4% the Netherlands had the highest current account surplus in the euro area, while Belgium had the lowest with a deficit of 1.7% (i.e. a balance of -1.7%). Malta is projected to have surpluses of 1.4% for 2014 and 2015, while the euro area is expected to see overall positive current account balances of 2.4% and 2.5% for the same years. In both 2014 and 2015 the Netherlands is expected to have the highest current account balances again, while France is expected to have the largest deficit for 2014, and Latvia the largest for 2015.

Measuring unemployment, the IMF report that Malta has the third lowest level of euro area unemployment for 2013, with 6.5% unemployment, bettered only by Germany (5.3%) and Austria (4.9%). By contrast the highest levels of eurozone unemployment were experienced by Greece (27.3%) and then by Spain (26.4%). Within the eurozone 10 countries faced levels of unemployment in excess of 10% while the average level of unemployment for the eurozone as a whole was 12.1%. The IMF’s projections indicate a slight reduction in eurozone unemployment for 2014 and 2015 (to 11.9% and 11.6% respectively) with Malta expected to reduce its unemployment to 6.3% and 6.2% for 2014 and then 2015. Austria is predicted to have the lowest levels of eurozone unemployment for 2014 and 2015, while Greece will have the highest for 2014 (26.3%) and Spain for 2015 (24.4%).

In their summary for “Advanced Europe” (subtitled “From Recession to Recovery”) the IMF explain that risks to economic recovery “stem from incomplete reforms, external factors, and even lower inflation”. They then outline that “accommodative monetary policy, completion of financial sector reforms, and structural reforms” are all essential for nurturing a full recovery.

For more information download the full report, “World Economic Outlook” from Elibrary.imf.org/page/ec4f.