Finance Minister Edward Scicluna has just concluded a media briefing in which he described to the Maltese media the details of the draft document submitted by the Eurogroup to the heads of government who have to confirm it and solve some issues the Eurogroup left in brackets as no solution could be reached by them.
Basically, the draft document, if approved by the Greek Parliament by Tuesday can open the way for the beginning of negotiations which will lead to the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding and the release of funds from the EU to help Greece in its present dire state.
If such an agreement is not reached, there will be what Prof. Scicluna called a 'managed temporary exit' by Greece from the euro including the adoption of the drachma.
Minister Scicluna explained that the Eurogroup hoped to conclude its work yesterday but then, after a break, found it could not agree with the draft presented to it. Then the discussions resumed but as midnight neared the ministers realised they were getting very tired and feared that a repeat of what had happened in the Cypriot bailout would occur with bad blood around.
So they agreed to break around midnight and start again this morning. This seems to have worked and now the minister said he was happier with the draft and waiting for the heads of government to solve those issues left unsolved by the Eurogroup.
Over the past days, the issue had become one of trust. The draft agreement which was then turned down by Greek population in the referendum had spoken of a EUR 7.2 billion bailout. But in the discussions this weekend, the ministers realised the complete package needed by Greece over a longer period was ten times larger, EUR 72 billion.
The new draft agreement is based on the ESM rules which are different from the previous EFSF ones. The objective is a bailout, the third bailout of Greece.
One other issue which came up was that the debt, unsustainable at 125%, was now being estimated by IMF at 200%.
The ministers thus realised things have deteriorated and so vaster solutions were needed as well as a firm commitment by the Greek government to what is being agreed.
The Greek goverenment must commit itself to agree, by Tuesday, of all that is being agreed today and its timelines of implementation. So far, the Greek finance minister, has committed his own government to do so but of course it will be Prime Minister Tsipras to make a firmer commitment by tonight.
The Eurogroup document is a four page document with parts of it in brackets which will hopefully be solved by the heads of government.
Basically, the Greek government must commit itself to ownership of what is being agreed.
The first condition by the Eurogroup is that the IMF must be involved at all stages. The IMF had been left out of the documemnt voted by the Greek Parliament on Thursday.
Then the Eurogroup document states that by 15 July the Greek govermment must undertake six actions in a clear and unambiguous manner. These are:
1. Streamlining VAT. VAT to be 23%, applicable on the islands as well and broadbased.
2. Sustainability of pension system. Pension reform must be agreed to in principle including the details.
3. Adopt a code of civil procdedure. Justice and governance in administration
4. Safeguarding of legal independence for ELSTAT, the statistics office.
5. Governance in general. Broadening tax base.
6. Full implementation of automatic spending cuts. BRRD must be accepted by the Greek government.
If these steps are undertaken by Greece till Tuesday, negotiations will then begin which will lead to the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding with clear timelines, commitments, details.
Together with the six actions, five areas have been identified:
- Pension reform must be agreed by 15 October
- Market reform must include areas such as Sunday trading, shopping hours etc. This was suggested by OECD and Greece is the only time this has been suggested worldwide. The only exception to this widespread liberalisation has regarded over the counter pharmaceuticals for a real reasson: the pharmaceutical importers are owed huge sums by the Greek government.
- The privatisation of energy transmission grid.
- Labour market reform including collective bargaining, industrial relations and the like.
- Take decisive action on non-performing loans. Meet bank recovery and resolution directive. The strengthening of banks with their capitalisation, a review of non-performing loans and a reform of the way how directors are chosen.
On top of all this, there are three EU requirements:
1. The scaling up of the privatisation programme. Ensure independence of privatisation body, TAIPED.
2. The overhaul of the public administration. De-politicise the Greek administration.
3. The removal of the roll-back this government did on what had been agreed to by the previous administration and rolled back by this one as soon as it got elected. Return of the Troika to Athens. (The draft calls them the institutions.
Lastly, Minister Scicluna spoke about the financing side of this draft agreement.
The IMF estimates that Greece needs between EUR 82 and EUR 86 billion in this third bailout.
The EU proposes to give Greece EUR 7 billion by 20 July, EUR 5 billion by mid-August as immediate oxygen for the Greek situation. Besides this, there will also be EUR 10 billion for bank caspitalisation.
Greece must meanwhile pay the arrears of its IMF loans as otherwise IMF will not lend more funds to Greece.
The Eurogroup hopes that Greece, like Ireland before it, will be able to rely once again on private financing once this time of crisis is over.
The most controversial issue in the draft document regards debt sustainability.
The document states there will be no haircut of the Greek debt but then it allows the tweaking of the repayment of the debt from 30 to 50 years. Minister Scicluna admitted this may be open to charges it is another extend and pretend fudge but said that Malta has already lost EUR 12 million when such a fudge was accepted by his predecessors.
If no agreement is reached tonight, the Eurogroup offers a managed temporary exit from the euro with help being provided to help Greece through humanitarian aid, and manage contagion.
For the first time, Minister Scicluna concluded before being summoned to meet Prime Minister Muscat for consultations as the summit broke up for a break, Grexit is no longer a taboo and is publicly being considered as a possibility.