The signs are there, I hold, but we refuse to see them, or are unable to see them or we are made unable to see them.

The star of the Joseph Muscat term has passed its apogee – ie its highest point – in the firmament of politics. From now onwards, it’s all systems on the decline. The glory days are over, possibly coinciding with the Euro-Asia summit and CHOGM – though what the country obtained from those is disputable.

Later on, Labour apologists might regret that so much time has been wasted and so many opportunities have been frittered away with nothing to show for them.

There was the huge PL/Moviment tidal wave that was translated into a massive number of MPs (also because of the missed packet case which is still sub judice).

I base my assumptions on two distinct or loosely-related issues.

The first is the state of the economy. During the days of the Budget debate, Minister Edward Scicluna repeatedly said that the Maltese economy was in danger of over-heating and that only the influx of foreign workers had kept it cool by keeping wages down.

Whether this consideration has percolated down to the general public or not, in the previous few weeks we have seen the buying power of the Maltese consumer grind to a halt.

During the past week, we on the daily sister paper have asked shop owners how their Christmas has been. The responses we were given are mirrored more or less in the responses the GRTU gave to The Times, whose results appeared yesterday.

They are also mirrored in anecdotal evidence that arrived by word of mouth: it would seem the impact of the reduction in water and electricity charges has been absorbed by the many little increases here and there and so any benefit may have been nullified.

The responses were that sales in Paola and Birkirkara increased but those in Valletta have fallen. As for Sliema, many retailers said their sales had been affected by traffic jams, while others reported an increase.

Let us consider the wider picture. Over the past few months, Malta has been praised by bodies such as the IMF, the rating agencies and the like for its admittedly impressive growth in GDP. But looking into the drivers of this growth, one finds most of the time the reduction in water and electricity rates. That, apart from online gaming companies and the like, fuelled the growth.

Most of the comments also warned that expenditure was running away and that there were some issues, such as pensions, that required corrective action. I do not remember any sustainable corrective measures being taken in this regard.

Everything I am saying stands to be corrected, or even reversed, according to further studies of the subject.

My conclusion is that the economy has failed to grow by sustainable means. This is a charge that I level not just against this government but also against the preceding PN administrations. They have all failed to boost the Maltese economy in a sustainable way and have thus collectively and individually failed to deliver the promised improvement in the standard of living that EU membership promised to bring about.

The Gonzi government has already paid for its failure to deliver. Will the Muscat government follow suit?

Back to retail. The problem is not because the owners of some outlets in Valletta failed to see the sales paying for their inflated rents, brand names for sale etc. To us, many of them complained about the boom in internet sales, with one outlet owner claiming that the Maltese are purchasing €200 million worth over the Internet every year. Others mention the ability to nip over to London or Sicily, with no tax to pay when they come home.

Yet retailing has continued to grow apace, with not just new shops but also huge new shopping malls with convenient parking. Investors have continued to plough new money into such ventures. Will their investments be worthwhile? Will they continue to crowd out the small, individual shop owner?

Whatever. A gap has appeared between what the people have been promised and what has actually been delivered. Now this would be acceptable in many other countries. Having the growth rate we have had over recent years is already an achievement that others have not had. To expect a linear continuum – or even a stratospheric growth as some have predicted – on the Chinese levels when the Chinese have stopped having that growth is unreal, or expressed only by those who have swallowed the spin.

The only sane advice we can have for the New Year is that we must get round to tackling the nodes, the strategic issues, the real bottlenecks that are hindering our growth.

I said earlier that this government may have already passed its apogee. Now that the legislature is half way through its term, attention will begin to shift towards the next election: it may already be too late to start tackling the strategic points now.

Which brings me to my second point. Last week, Eurobserver pointed out that while the government retains the trust of the majority (and is much better placed than its predecessor in 2012), there has been a five point or five percent reduction in trust.

The various issues we have discussed over the past years, and the cumulative impact of them, have seriously undermined the government’s credibility. Nothing has been lost so far – well, nothing that cannot be retrieved – but the government needs a proper shake-up unless it wants to receive further blows to its credibility.

Whether it is able to stem the haemorrhage or will continue to collect brickbats is what this New Year is all about.

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