The Malta Independent 17 July 2026, Friday
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Economic forecasts

Alfred Sant Monday, 29 February 2016, 08:00 Last update: about 11 years ago

Economic management has come to depend a lot on forecasts being made regarding how developments are shaping towards greater or lesser growth. Such forecasts, even if carried out under the strictest scientific criteria by dependable agencies, cannot always be taken as Gospel truth. Which is why you’ll discover that there could simultaneously be published different scenarios about how a given economy will move.

We could see this happen recently when Maltese finance minister Edward Scicluna forecasted that the Maltese economy would be performing more strongly than at the rate benchmarked for it by the financial agency Fitch.

The point was also highlighted when discussions took place recently between European governments such as those of Portugal, Italy and France, and the European Commission, regarding their current budgets in the context of eurozone rules covering public deficits. The governments had been building their projections on certain economic forecasts, the Commission on others. The greater economic growth, the less will deficits turn out to be as a percentage of the economy.

Contrasting economic forecasts do not always result from assessments that vary for scientific reasons.

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“Vergin” ODZ land

I saw in the print media a panoramic shot of the Ta’ Ċenċ neighbourhood where the planning authorities are reviewing a proposal for the development of new villas. Concerning as it does, an ODZ defined area, naturally the proposal has been widely opposed. Ta’ Ċenċ is considered a location which must be safeguarded against all development, so much so that the picture published by the paper carried the title “Vergin Land”.

However, a closer look at the photo reveals that in the area displayed, there are at least twelve significant buildings all with their own big and prominent swimming pool. They hardly demonstrate that one is looking at “vergin” territory.

So questions arise: Which interests would best be satisfied if no development takes place at Ta’ Ċenċ? Those of landscape and environment? Or those of owners who already have dwellings there?

Such questions should not be taken as an argument for or against the said development that is being proposed.

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Cervantes & Shakespeare

Shakespeare and Cervantes died in the same year, 1616.

In Britain, a grandiose commemoration is being organised of the country’s supreme poet and dramatist. Prime Minister David Cameron has rightly participated in it.

A commemorative programme has been drafted for Cervantes, but it is being criticised as inadequate, as well as because it has been left to drag behind schedule. Since last December’s general election, Spain has effectively lacked a functioning government. So, the country could hardly follow Cameron’s strategy in order to honour the most important writer of the Spanish language. There was a proposal for the Spanish King to spearhead such an initiative but it led nowhere.

One can understand why people have now begun to protest at the situation.

Cervantes certainly deserves much better.

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