Beyond the deaths and destruction that the Ukraine is being subjected to, thanks to the endeavours of Russian President Putin, the war will have other profound, longterm consequences.
Economically for instance, the way by which Europe seeks to source its energy supplies will surely undergo radical change. Already this process had been commenced as part of efforts to counter climate warming. Now, it will also have to be boosted for security reasons. The resulting disruptions will presumably trigger significant price movements.
However, the most important consequence is likely to follow precisely in the field of defence and security. The German decision to beef up the country’s military budget as soon as possible, will already be framing future developments.
The expectation now is that within the European Union the impetus will pick up for a European defence union that truly delivers a strategic autonomy. After all, European history shows that the speed towards greater unity frequently quickened not as the result of negotiations that achieved gradual progress, but as the consequence of some war that “happened” to occur.
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RUSSIA’S REPUTATION
It is such a pity that Russia will end up labelled as the country of war. And that this will throw a deep shadow over the Russian people.
For despite the dismal colours with which the image of Russia was cast in the mentality of the citizens of Western Europe at the height of the Cold War, the Russians were and remain a courageous and kind people endowed with a civilisation that is of top quality. Their artistic and cultural achievements are an invaluable contribution to the history of mankind. The heroism they displayed during the Second World War had no equal, which also explains why the Russian people suffered the greatest casualities during that war.
The Ukraine invasion will again provide another opportunity for Russia’s detractors to unjustly proclaim that its people are barbarians.
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REFUGEES
For long, it has been said that Europe needs a common policy that balances the burdens which result from immigration across its different member countries. The arrival of refugees and of others who are looking for work in past years emerged mostly from the south.
To carry out such a policy of burden sharing, all European states needed to agree. That agreement did not come about as Poland and Hungary mainly, disagreed. They were for a fortress Europe that would not allow easy entry.
The Ukraine war has fundamentally changed this state of affairs. Hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing the Ukraine have entered neighbouring countries, among which Hungary and Poland. In short time, the cry has arisen: by themselves, these countries cannot cope. The European Union has promised funds and other resources to help provide the means that would give support to refugees.
However, it is clear that the EU cannot now promise to see how to allocate the refugees to its member countries. Alas, as we in Malta well know, there is still no common European policy to cover this issue.