The latest MaltaToday survey (11 October 2026), the first since Labour's fourth consecutive general election victory, places the Labour Party and the Nationalist Party virtually neck-and-neck, with just 0.2 percentage points separating them - well within the survey's margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points. Yet, Prime Minister Robert Abela (44.4%) maintains a considerable lead over Opposition Leader Alex Borg (35.1%) in terms of trust.
Another important finding concerns abstention. While the recent general election result was based on a turnout of 87.47%, the survey implies a turnout of 76%. A higher proportion of previous Labour voters than PN voters are declaring that they do not intend to vote. This suggests that dissatisfaction among some Labour voters does not necessarily translate into support for the Nationalist Party. However, the reasons behind such intentions, including when voters declare them, require further investigation.
One relevant concept is loyalty, which fellow sociologist Godfrey Baldacchino and I discussed in our Times of Malta opinion piece, "PL-PN: that stubborn 5% difference" (22 June 2026). From this perspective, abstention may sometimes express dissatisfaction without necessarily indicating a transfer of political allegiance. Another important consideration is that actual turnout is eventually usually higher in actual elections than in preceding surveys.
One issue whose possible influence on public opinion seems plausible is the electricity disruptions experienced during the summer. Electricity reliability is not simply a technical or economic matter. It has direct social implications. Power cuts affect households, businesses, working conditions, health, wellbeing and everyday routines. Their consequences are also unevenly distributed across society.
This raises questions about infrastructure planning, preparedness, and the sustainability of Malta's development model. The issue should also be placed within a broader context. Rising temperatures, increasing energy demand, and pressures on electricity infrastructure are not unique to Malta. We should also reflect on our growing appetite for energy, consumer lifestyles, construction and development, and our dependence on tourism. Many of us are connected to these sectors directly or indirectly, even when we criticise their consequences. Hence, the energy issue - and its economic, social, and environmental ramifications - deserves to be given more priority in our national decision-making.
Other issues may also have influenced public opinion, including the ongoing developments surrounding the Yorgen Fenech case. However, I would be cautious about assuming their electoral impact. Competing interpretations exist, and the relationship between media prominence and voters' actual priorities cannot simply be taken for granted. Civil society organisations, political actors, journalists and commentators all contribute to public discussion. Yet the most visible voices do not necessarily represent the diversity of experiences and opinions within society. We should therefore be cautious about assuming that the loudest public narratives represent the priorities of the wider electorate.
What seems particularly important is how these various issues, including developments in the international context, relate to people's everyday experiences and political choices. This is why the sociological imagination is relevant to political analysis. Individual experiences are connected to wider social structures, institutions, economic arrangements, cultural influence, and political decisions.
Finally, we should recognise the importance of credible electoral surveys without treating them as infallible. The established surveys published by MaltaToday, Times of Malta, and Vince Marmarà, make valuable contributions to evidence-based public knowledge and debate. Their credibility should be assessed through their methodologies rather than whether their findings suit particular political preferences.
In this regard, I recall how, before the previous general election, some commentators - including some who should know better - were highly critical of surveys (and pollsters) whose findings they appeared unwilling to accept.
In the meantime, the next major political development is this week's Budget for 2027, which will itself provide further material for interpretation and debate.
Michael Briguglio is Associate Professor at the Department of Sociology, Faculty of Arts, University of Malta
www.michaelbriguglio.com