Karl Lauterbach, the German Health Minister, in the past days chose to spend his summer holidays in Italy. Like all of us, he had to deal with the extraordinary temperatures of the past days. On the 13 July, while travelling from Bologna to Tuscany he commented on social media that “If things continue like this, these holiday destinations will have no long-term future. Climate change is destroying southern Europe. An era is drawing to a close”.

In the past months, in Malta, both government and the tourism industry have spoken in detail on the future of the industry. Both are looking ecstatically at the increase in tourism arrival numbers: definitely a case of misplaced enthusiasm. In reality they should be carefully examining the urgent need for a radical restructuring of the tourism industry, if it is to have any chance of survival at all.

It would be pertinent to look again at last year’s Deloitte report on the carrying capacity for tourism in the Maltese Islands, commissioned by the Malta Hotels and Restaurants Association (MHRA), but financed primarily by EU funds.

The Deloitte report, entitled Carrying Capacity Study for Tourism in the Maltese Islands was mostly quoted in the national debate in relation to its quantification of the oversupply of tourist beds.  The report emphasises that over the next five years there is a significant risk of a substantial over-supply in the expected touristic accommodation growth. As a result of the projected supply of touristic accommodation, close to 5 million tourists per annum would be required (at an average 80 per cent occupancy throughout the year) in order to ensure the sector’s long-term profitability. Such an influx of tourists, definitely, cannot be handled by the country. It would definitely make the current infrastructural mess even worse than it currently is.

There is however another significant issue which the Deloitte report, and the industry, ignore completely. What is the impact of climate change on the tourism attracted to the Maltese islands? The current heat-wave is an indicator of what lies in wait for us in the near future.

The infrastructural mess in energy generation and its distribution, is not doing tourism any favours! This is not only evident in the Maltese islands. It is also clearly a common problem in a number of other competitor Mediterranean countries.

The tropicalization of the climate in the Mediterranean is a matter which undoubtedly should have a considerable bearing in any strategic debate on the future of tourism in the Maltese islands. This crucial point is however, regrettably, completely ignored not just by the industry and its advisors but also by myopic policy planners at the Malta Tourism Authority (MTA) and the supervising Ministry.

The industry continuously prefers to bury its head in the sand, ostrich-like. In this context the carrying-capacity of the tourism industry is completely irrelevant, even in the short term. It is completely overshadowed by climate change: that is the primary future driver of tourism. Changes are clearly in the air, yet both the industry and the policy makers, ostrich-like, are still focused on making tourism great again!

The summer months in the Maltese islands are becoming too hot for tourism. Does this mean that tourism has no future or does it signify that it will eventually be cut down to size and effectively shifted to the winter months?

With the summer months getting progressively hotter it is pretty obvious that the current heat wave is not an exception, it will shortly be the new normal!

There are already indications that the Mediterranean is possibly already facing a 10 percent drop in those planning to visit in the second half of 2023.

Unfortunately, government’s attitude towards tourism clearly indicates that it has no plans for the anticipated impacts on the tourism industry as a result of the tropicalization of the Mediterranean climate. This is the most obvious conclusion after “reading” what’s missing in the Deloitte report. The ostrich is apparently the new mascot of the Malta Tourism Authority.

 

An architect and civil engineer, the author is a former Chairperson of ADPD-The Green Party in Malta.  [email protected] ,   http://carmelcacopardo.wordpress.com