The year that is about to begin will bring with it the appointment of a new European Commissioner by the Maltese government.

Each member state of the European Union has the right to nominate one person to sit on the European Commission for a five-year term.

The Commission’s President is elected soon after the European Parliament elections, which are scheduled for June 2024. Each of the commissioners is then allocated a portfolio for which he or she will be responsible for the five years ending 2029. All commissioners work independently of the national governments of the countries from which they come.

Before being appointed, each commissioner-designate must appear before a European Parliament committee responsible for their portfolio to be evaluated on their suitability for the position.

It is not an easy task. And it is not a foregone conclusion that a country’s nominee is accepted. In 2019, the nominations from France, Romania and Hungary were rejected for different reasons, and a replacement needed to be found.

Prime Minister Robert Abela will be picking Malta’s representative during the course of next year. He or she will be the sixth to represent Malta on the commissioner. Joe Borg was the first, soon after Malta became a member of the European Union in 2004, followed by John Dalli, who did not complete his term and was replaced by Tonio Borg, and then it was the turn of Karmenu Vella, who was succeeded by Helena Dalli.

All five were ministers when the respective Prime Minister selected them for the post, and it is highly likely that Abela will go down the same road. It will be the first time that he will pick Malta’s representative. The last two were appointed with Joseph Muscat as Prime Minister.

An appointment of a commissioner from among the members of the Cabinet will inevitably lead to a reshuffle of the ministerial portfolios. The appointment of the new Maltese European Commissioner comes more of less midway through the legislature, which is often seen as the best time for a Prime Minister to make changes to his line-up as the country starts to edge closer to the national polls.

One name that springs to mind immediately when considerations are being made as to who could be Malta’s next European Commissioner is Health Minister and Labour Party deputy leader Chris Fearne.

Fearne contested for the Labour Party leadership against Abela. Soon after Joseph Muscat announced his intention to resign, in December 2019, Fearne appeared to be the favourite to replace him until Abela threw in his hat and eventually won.

Before announcing his candidature for the post, Abela had said that he was “not ready to participate in any devilish pact through which I would buy some comfortable seat for myself, and sell out the country, the Labour Party and genuine Labourites under the veil of the false excuse of unity”.

After losing out, Fearne had not attended the rally that the Labour Party had organised for Abela to address the party delegates for the first time as leader. It was the start of a difficult relationship, with Fearne also needing some persuasion to stay on as part of the Cabinet, keeping the health ministry in the new administration now led by Abela.

It was not long before Covid-19 broke, and the two had to work together to find ways to work alongside each other to deal with the crisis and all that the pandemic brought with it. They were not always on the same page, with Fearne pushing for more attention to be given to the challenges to the health sector that the pandemic was causing, while Abela was pulling the other way as the economic effects started to take hold.

Abela possibly still considers Fearne to be his biggest threat for the leadership. Surveys have shown that, by far, Fearne is still the most popular minister and his performance is considered to be the best from among his peers. The way Malta tackled the Covid-19 pandemic enabled him to rise in stature, and he is still seen by many as the best option for Labour Party leader (and PM) if Abela had to call it a day.

Fearne might still harbour leadership ambitions, but there are arguments that that particular ship has sailed, and that his target is to move on, also considering that he now has held the health portfolio for more than eight years and, aged 60, is aiming for a new challenge.

Maybe the “persuasion” referred to earlier was a promise Abela made to Fearne in January 2020 that he (Fearne) had to bide his time and continue as health minister for some more time until Helena Dalli’s term expired.

Maybe it’s still too early to say that a final choice has been made, as Abela is waiting for the outcome of the 2024 EP election to make his final decision. If Labour retains the 4-2 win then Abela’s position would be strengthened even further after his record victory in 2022. But if Labour loses the fourth seat then things could change.

Whatever the case, if he does pick Fearne to be Malta’s European Commissioner, it will mean that Malta will need a new Health Minister.

Some changes will need to be made to the Cabinet formation, with Jo-Etienne Abela, now minister responsible for active aging, being named as the most likely replacement for Fearne. Abela might also take the opportunity to make other changes, camouflaging them as necessary interventions to promote ministers who are doing well and replace others who are under-performing or causing embarrassment.

If it is Fearne who is selected, another big change will have to happen within the Labour Party. Fearne currently holds the position of deputy leader for parliamentary affairs which, as second in command in the party ranks, also entitles him to the position of deputy prime minister.

If Fearne becomes Malta’s commissioner, he will have to vacate this post, leading to an election within the Labour Party structures to elect his successor. In this case, it will not be the Prime Minister who chooses what to do, but it will be the party delegates who will be asked to elect their new deputy leader.

In 2017, Fearne had beaten Prof. Edward Scicluna to the post in a close contest which saw him picking up 51% of the preferences. Since then, many up-and-coming Labour politicians have progressed in their career, and it is likely that there will be more than two who express an interest.

As things stand now, Owen Bonnici is the most senior in the Cabinet behind Abela and Fearne, and he is still young enough to consider the eventuality. Bonnici had already contested for the post of deputy leader for party affairs in 2016, losing out to Chris Cardona, at a time when the position was open to MPs.

Other ministers like Ian Borg, Aaron Farrugia, Byron Camilleri, Miriam Dalli, Clyde Caruana and Clifton Grima might also aspire for the post, with a victory possibly paving the way for a run for the leadership in due course.

Names for the post of European Commissioner other than Fearne’s would be a surprise. But we all know that things change very quickly in politics, and so much water will have to pass under the bridge before a final decision is made.

In the meantime, we wait.