Former Foreign Minister Evarist Bartolo believes that the raging war between Russia and Ukraine has led to a second Cold War between East and West with even bleaker prospects than the first.

At the same time, Bartolo thinks that the hostilities in Ukraine have opened up the possibility that a situation similar to the “frozen conflict”, that has been in place between North and South Korea for more than 70 years, will also take shape in Europe.

For his part, George Vital Zammit, lecturer on public policy at the University of Malta, says that the West has in essence created a second, reverse Cuban Missile Crisis, this time on Russia’s doorstep. He was referring to the 1960s crisis when American deployments of nuclear missiles in Italy and Turkey were matched with Soviet deployments of similar weaponry in Cuba. The incident is widely seen as the closest the Cold War ever came to an escalation into full-scale nuclear war.

Bartolo and Zammit were asked for their views on the effects on Europe of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.

The effects of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict on the EU

Zammit says that our sense of security as the EU, as a continent, has been “dented and challenged”, with its Eastern front under threat.

Bartolo says that a whole new EU security architecture is required by which the EU and Russia pose no threat to each other and can co-exist as neighbours in peace. He added that this is irrelevant of how the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is resolved.

Bartolo adds that apart from the widely reported economic effects of the conflict, it has ultimately left the European economy weaker. He made reference to Germany where companies are relocating due to the high energy costs resulting from the absence of Russian gas, rendering them uncompetitive.

The sudden militarisation of the EU is the product of panic, Bartolo says. The leaders know that if Ukraine is not already defeated, it is certainly not winning the war, meaning that Russia will have the upper hand in any future negotiations.

Another reason for panic, Bartolo says, is the high probability that Donald Trump will return to the US presidency in the upcoming November elections. He says that Trump made it clear that the EU must take responsibility of its own security and stop depending on the US.

Zammit says that the sudden militarisation is due to the nuclear deterrent becoming redundant after 50-60 years in effect. He cites the maxim “if you want peace prepare for war” and believes that the EU should bolster its defences so that it won’t be caught unawares.

France’s warmongering

Zammit believes that French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent “sabre rattling” is reckless for several reasons.

Macron is detracting from the EU’s unified diplomatic voice and showing bias to France’s alliance with NATO, Zammit contends. Russia culturally understands military gestures better than diplomacy and Macron is communicating with them clearly in that way which is a “dangerous game”.

While France is a nuclear power, it doesn’t stand a chance against Russia’s might, Zammit observes.

Altogether, this does little to help future negotiations, Zammit says. These, according to Bartolo, are already in Russia’s favour. Furthermore, it does little to diffuse the situation, he says.

Bartolo and Zammit both agree that NATO’s expansion, fuelled by the US, has created security concerns at Russian borders. All the while, Bartolo says the EU followed “meekly” and no attention was paid to Russia’s security concerns.

Bartolo says that ultimately the result is two-way security concerns at the EU and Russian borders. A Ukrainian defeat would result in a Russian satellite state at the EU’s backdoor, Zammit says.

Ignored Russian concerns

Zammit adds that the NATO expansion was outright wrong. While a Russian satellite state is detrimental for the EU, the possibility of a NATO satellite being set up in Ukraine is equally outrageous for the Russians.

Here Zammit and Bartolo were in agreement, with Bartolo saying “how would the US react if all of a sudden Canada and Mexico turn hostile?”

To add insult to injury, Zammit says, Finland and Sweden, neighbouring Russia, also joined NATO recently. He said that this “poking of the Russian bear” has been going on for some time now.

Zammit says the writing on the wall could have been observed most plainly at the 2007 conference in Munich where Putin expressed his security concerns and “drew a big red line” saying that Ukraine was under Russian influence.

Putin was openly defied in 2022 when Ukraine took Russian out of its school curriculums, Zammit says. The significance of this, he said, is the thwarting of school of thought that Russian speakers and ex-Soviet countries still belong to Russia.

However, Zammit points out another aspect of the conflict related to simple geography. To begin with, Russia is a very flat country without any landmarks, making boundary delineation difficult. Additionally, Russians emphasise the need for a "buffer zone" for security.

Bartolo adds that the frontier currently under threat was the same one used by Napoleon and Hitler in their respective attempts to invade Russia.

From another aspect, Zammit says that Russia has precious little ports, most in bizarre locations with little strategic value. He adds that the northern borders of Russia opening into the sea are frozen. With that in mind, Zammit says that the Russians will do all they can to keep Sevastopol, near Ukraine, secure.

Avoiding the tragedy

Zammit argues that this all goes to show that the Russo-Ukrainian conflict could have easily been avoided with straightforward diplomacy. The US should have given assurance to Russia that Ukraine would never form part of NATO and in return Russia would make an assurance for the full sovereignty of Ukraine.

Instead, the Ukrainian people were lobbying for EU membership without any assurances from any Western country of peaceful intent, he notes. Zammit says that this was all a historical build-up resulting in Russia seeing Ukraine as an unacceptable threat.

Bartolo adds that in 2022, Russian and Ukrainian diplomats were ready to agree to a Russian withdrawal from Donbas and all of Crimea in return for Ukraine not seeking NATO membership.

Tragically, Western interference, through then British PM Boris Johnson, persuaded Ukrainian President Zelensky to break off negotiations as the West was not ready to end the war Bartolo said.

European neo-colonialism?

Bartolo says that it is unlikely that the current militarisation of the EU has colonial intent. Currently the richest industrial and agricultural areas are under Russian control and Ukrainian manpower has dwindled with six million refugees and 500,000 casualties.

He adds that we are at the dawn of a “multipolar world” where the US has ceased to be the only superpower and made reference to China and India. The former minister contends that this means that countries that would have previously been seen as potential colonies are rejecting any form of colonialisation and are working together to ensure a new world order with institutions like the UN being more inclusive and catering to their needs.

The Second Cold War

We are currently in a fresh Cold War, Bartolo argues. This was foreseen by a number of American diplomats who saw the disastrous potential of NATO expansion. Alarmingly, no end seems to be in sight and the possibility of new Helsinki Accords, as a solution, are bleak Bartolo believes.

The current geopolitical situation is “toxic”, he adds. It is one in which hostile neighbours cannot sit to negotiate peacefully with the idea being “naïve at best and denounced as a betrayal at worst”. He says that a very likely possibility is a “frozen conflict” like in Korea with no real peace.  North and South Korea were at war between 1950 and 1953, but although hostilities stopped, no peace treaty was ever signed, making it a frozen conflict.

Russia does not seem likely to invade any EU states, Bartolo says. Indeed, the “Russian threat” may be exaggerated by media spin to make citizens look at the military in a more positive light.

See also: Neutrality is an elegant umbrella that is blown away the moment it starts raining - Giovanni Bonello