Prime Minister Robert Abela has taken a gamble with the nomination of Glenn Micallef as Malta's representative on the European Commission.

It could solidify Abela's position within the government and Labour Party circles, and vindicate the stubborn stand he took with the commission's chief, Ursula von der Leyen.

It could also put him in further trouble, worsen Malta's relations with Europe, and open the door for more internal dissent.

It all depends if Micallef will make it through the European Parliament test in November.

If he makes it, it would be a victory for him and for the Prime Minister.

If he does not, it would be another huge blow to Abela and his leadership.

The original choice

Glenn Micallef was not the Prime Minister's first choice.

The name Abela had in mind was that of his then deputy leader and Health Minister Chris Fearne, so much so that Abela had gone through the trouble of carrying out a Cabinet reshuffle last January to implement his plan.

Fearne had been "relegated" to a quieter and less intense portfolio, giving him the possibility to prepare for his exit from the Cabinet and the simultaneous move to Brussels. With his political experience, Fearne would have been a more acceptable candidate for von der Leyen. And the likelihood that he would have passed the European Parliament test before his nomination is accepted would have been greater.

Abela would have also killed the second bird with the same stone, as he would have eliminated his main rival for the party leadership. Fearne, we all remember, had lost to Abela in the run-off for the PL leadership in January 2020, but he was still seen as a potential replacement to Abela. By sending Fearne to Brussels, Abela would have also taken him out of the loop, and put paid to any aspirations Fearne may have still had to challenge Abela again for the party's top post.

But that was all before the magisterial inquiry into the hospitals' deal was concluded.

Fearne had to pull out of contention after he was embroiled in the court proceedings which followed the inquiry. He immediately realised that it had become impossible for him to take on the role of Malta's representative on the European Commission. There, matters are taken more seriously than in Malta, and Fearne knew that there was no chance at all for him to make it through. He did not want to be humiliated by a rejection.

Conversely, Abela kept hoping he would have been able to change Fearne's mind if the latter had been exonerated by the courts. Right until a prima facie decision was made by a magistrate, Abela kept saying that Fearne was his first choice. But, ultimately, Abela had to give up the idea.

The second option

Abela then turned to his second choice, and this is where a set of new problems emerged.

Rather than pick someone from his Cabinet - as has been the practice ever since Malta became an EU member 20 years ago - Abela opted to nominate someone with little political background.

Glenn Micallef was never a minister. Neither was he ever a parliamentary secretary. Nor was he ever an MP or a councillor. The highest position he had ever occupied was that of head of secretariat in the Office of the Prime Minister.

It's apparent that Micallef's nomination was not well-received in Brussels. Reports that Malta had been asked to change its nominee were never denied, but the Prime Minister would not budge. He kept on insisting with Micallef. He even resisted the call to submit the name of a woman for the post, as all European countries were told to do. He did not even consider the re-nomination of outgoing commissioner Helena Dalli, which gave rise to speculation that he was not pleased with her performance, or that he wanted to distance himself from his predecessor's decisions.

It was, on the whole, an affront to the wishes of the European Commission chief.

In the end, Brussels had to accept Micallef's nomination. But Malta was "paid back" by being given a weak portfolio. Malta sought to capture the more important role of Commissioner for the Mediterranean, but instead was lumped with the youth, culture, sport and intergenerational fairness.

Abela has tried hard to make it appear that the portfolio Micallef has been assigned was "better than expected", but Malta is being considered as one of the biggest losers in the von der Leyen college of commissioners.

It's not much of a surprise. Apart from Abela's intransigence and choice of nominee, other considerations are made before such posts are allocated. And the Labour government's history with Europe has not been idyllic. The citizenship by investment scheme (known more as the selling of Maltese passports), the energy subsidies which the commission wants the Maltese government to remove, and hunting and trapping issues - on which Malta has been at loggerheads with Europe for the past decade - do not help Malta's cause.

Micallef's nomination is not an automatic appointment. He is still to make it through the stage when he is grilled by MEPs. Experts on European affairs indicate that he is among a short list of candidates who are more likely to be turned down.

The PM's considerations

Why did Abela, once Fearne had dropped out, choose not to select someone from his Cabinet?

No official declaration has been made about this, but it is clear that Abela did not want to give the Cabinet another shock, so soon after January's Cabinet reshuffle.

The situation, especially after the results of the European Parliament and local council elections last June, is more delicate than ever before in the Labour ranks.

Let us remember that since the June election, Abela's position in the party is not as strong as it used to be. Labour has squandered more than half of its advantage, and a fourth successive general election win is not as secure as it was a few months ago.

That Abela's hold on the party has weakened could also be seen in the only real internal election that was held by the PL earlier this month. In the race for president of the party, the candidate supported and endorsed by Abela, Norma Saliba, lost out to Alex Sciberras. The distance between the two candidates was a mere 14 votes, which also explains a split down the middle between the Abela faction and the rest.

Abela knew that if he had selected someone from the Cabinet as Malta's European nominee, he could have upset the balance. While Fearne's original nomination was the obvious choice which everyone was expecting, a second name from the Cabinet would have ruffled many feathers within the Labour set-up.

The next step

But, as said earlier, it is not over yet.

The Prime Minister might still have to make the choice he so desperately tried to avoid.

Micallef is still to face the last hurdle before making it to the college of commissioners. It is the hardest obstacle of them all.

If he makes it, he would have reached a personal milestone and justified the Prime Minister's insistence and intransigence.

If Micallef does not, it would be a big defeat for Abela, and more questions will rise on his leadership abilities and the decisions he makes. Relations with European institutions could deteriorate, also given that Abela has been repeatedly warned that his choice was not the type of "executive competence" that von der Leyen was seeking.

Added to this, Abela would have to scramble for a quick replacement and would probably have to make the decision he wanted so hard to avoid - that of picking a name from the Cabinet, which will upset the delicate balance within the government and party.

Unless, of course, Abela chooses to find someone else from outside his executive team, as he did with Micallef. Which would mean that Abela would be in for another round of the boxing match with the EU.