Maltese political experts question how US President-Elect Donald Trump will achieve his greatest pledges, including his ambitious aim to be a peacemaker and end wars around the world - specifically the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Donald Trump's was re-elected to serve as the 47th US President, beating US Vice-President Kamala Harris.
The Malta Independent contacted Brendan Zerafa and George Vital Zammit for their thoughts. Zerafa is a policy consultant, who works at the Parliamentary Secretariat for Social Dialogue and specialises in politics and international law. Vital Zammit is a political scientist, who heads the Department of Public Policy at the University of Malta; he was also tasked to compile the Nationalist Party's (PN) general election programme.
Trump pledges ending all wars, but 'how' remains unknown
Both Zerafa and Vital Zammit stated that many questions remain on how the 45th and soon-to-be 47th President of the United States aims to achieve his promise to end all wars.
Their responses were based on Trump's behaviour during his initial presidential term a few years ago, as well as how he has carried himself since.
Vital Zammit said that as an outsider, "what I am concerned about the most is the international scene, rather than the domestic politics of the United States".
Zerafa and Vital Zammit both said that Trump is pro-Israel and fosters a positive relationship with its Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Zerafa said that any potential settlement or agreement under Trump "is likely to be heavily skewed in Israel's favour" while Vital Zammit referenced Trump's "very heavy" rhetoric against Iran.
Regarding Ukraine, Zerafa mentioned that Trump's plan includes creating a demilitarised zone between the two countries to freeze the conflict - a scenario that would not go down well with Ukraine or its leader Zelenskyy, since this would mean that any territory Russia has gained would remain under Russian control until a more permanent solution is found. Ukrainians have remained adamant to retain their sovereignty and that all land taken by the Russians should be returned.
He also described another possibility where Trump argues that peace in Europe should be handled by European states, rather than by the USA and NATO.
Vital Zammit believes that any agreement to end the war by Trump would feature an agreement with Putin that would include Ukrainian concessions for Crimea and the Donbas region. However, he added that: "Ukraine will never accept this because its sovereignty has been breached and because Ukrainians want the Russians out of their territory.
What does Trump's election mean for Malta and Europe?
Trump's election will not have any effect on the bilateral relations between Malta and the United States, given our size and neutral status, Vital Zammit said. However, as also indicated by Zerafa, Trump's second rise to power will have significant ripple effects on the European Union, naturally affecting Malta in the process.
Zerafa and Vital Zammit both echoed serious concerns on European security and the continent's reliance on the USA for defence. Trump has been very vocal about not being a supporter of NATO. This raises several concerns about the defence and security of Europe considering the fact that this relationship has been upheld since the end of the Second World War.
"Regarding the European Union, this election is undoubtedly a wake-up call," Zerafa said, "His election is likely to intensify calls within EU circles for the establishment of a European Armed Forces."
The idea of having an EU army is nothing new, though the two local political experts believe that Trump's second election could accelerate this discourse into potentially becoming a reality. According to Vital Zammit, this is probably a hot topic within NATO's own corridors right now.
"What is going to happen with the security architecture of Europe? Will Europe have to go at it alone without the US, or will the US keep its commitment?" Vital Zammit asked.
Zerafa acknowledged that these discussions have implications on Malta due to its constitutional neutrality. The creation of a European Armed Forces of sorts would probably lead to pressures on neutral states like Malta, since they would probably not want to contribute to its formation while being beneficiaries to it in the case of an arising conflict.
Such opinions align with the Maltese public's views, according to a survey carried out earlier this year by MaltaToday. This survey had found that 42% of respondents supported the creation of an EU army as 36% opposed this idea. Additionally, 50% were against Malta's participation in it while 55% were not in favour of Maltese assisting in military action to assist any other EU member state that has been attacked by any external forces.
Unpredictable, unhinged, and might jeopardise future presidencies
Vital Zammit described Trump as a politician who makes politics seem effortless due to his authenticity, though this authenticity is reflected in the "complete lack" of policy detail he provides.
"Trump is not a traditional politician - he is a performer," he said.
Vital Zammit said that Trump's new slogan is "Trump will fix it" and reiterated the aforementioned concerns behind "how" he intends to achieve his policy goals. He also added that Trump's unique behaviour has not changed, even after two assassination attempts during this presidential campaign.
Vital Zammit said that since this is Trump's second and final term, Trump may act even more unhinged and compromise future presidencies through his decisions, similarly to how his first course of action in 2016 was to withdraw the USA from the Paris Climate Agreement. There are also concerns that Trump may repeat this endeavour come 2025.
Zerafa's main concern is that conservatives may use this term to "shape the next 30-50 years through the Supreme Court". He described that the "substantial majority" of conservatives in this arena could be expanded upon during these four years, meaning that the Supreme Court will "likely continue to issue conservative, originalist and textualist rulings on major issues".
Another concern of his is that Trump will dismiss special counsel Jack Smith, who is overseeing the investigation into Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.
"This action, among others, raises concerns about the rule of law in the United States and whether the country can continue to advocate for democracy, human rights and the rule of law internationally when there are significant domestic concerns about these principles," Zerafa said.
Positives
Aside from his plea to end all wars (rather than start new ones), Zerafa believes that Trump's presidency will be a positive development for the American economy, thus granting a sense of economic security to the rest of the world.
He backed his view by citing some of the President-elect's pledges, such as his electoral promise to reduce energy costs for American families, "which would likely have a positive impact on ordinary Americans and will inevitably increase their spending power", as well as his policy to expand IVF and making either the government or insurance companies table the costs to the benefit of aspiring parents. The latter proposal was noted to be especially advantageous for couples undergoing IVF courses considering the lucrative nature of American healthcare.
Vital Zammit cited two Republican ideas that the incoming Trump administration is likely to abide by: tax cuts for USA's highest earners and promoting their national economy via deregulation.
The first idea stems from the Republican belief that "when rich people don't pay taxes, they invest in the economy and create jobs", Vital Zammit said while acknowledging its contradiction to principles of social justice that call for society's highest bracket of income earners to pay more tax. Meanwhile, the latter capitalist idea is that government should intervene in the economy as little as possible.
From a political standpoint, Vital Zammit observed that since Trump won this election on all fronts, that is, through popular vote, Congress, Senate and the electoral college - there should be a peaceful transition of power come January.
After inciting riots and violence on 6 January 2021 in Washington DC's Capitol Building, there were concerns that if Trump lost this election to Harris, he might call a victory anyway and create serious political tension.