Robert Abela controls the wealth, the laws and the system.  But he can't control everything forever.

Aristotle argued, in his most famous work Politics, that it's when leaders appear strongest, their control absolute, that they're most vulnerable. He mapped out how their fragilities can be identified. He highlighted several critical indicators that predict a leader's imminent collapse. If Aristotle was correct, as he often was, Robert Abela's days are numbered. Change is coming, it always does.  The question isn't if but when.

Aristotle wasn't some theoretical philosopher. He was a practical man who got his hands dirty. His own hometown of Stagira was destroyed by Philip of Macedon. He tutored Alexander the Great. He studied over 150 city states and observed the same patterns repeating themselves. He watched leaders rising to power only to be catastrophically brought down. Aristotle identified the telltale signs of decline, the degeneration phase, when the ruler becomes too comfortable in his power. 

Robert Abela is there.  Aristotle noted that at first the ruler tries to justify his own privileges and those of his cronies.  Initially he tries to explain away the cheating and looting. Yes there's corruption but we've created wealth, built a strong economy, raised pensions, made childcare free, kept energy prices down.

Then gradually something shifts, the justifications become thinner, more perfunctory.  Eventually the ruler stops bothering trying to justify anything.  That's where Abela is.  "Over my dead body," he raged.  Nobody's going to touch Clint Camilleri, I don't care if he employed Clayton's girlfriend, I'm not interested in the 10 million overspend on the Nadur-Ghajnsielem road, I don't want to hear about the unfinished swimming pool and the millions he overspent, who cares about the berthing places.  So what if he's given his architectural partner over 700,000 euro of your money.

Public resources have become Abela's personal piggybank.  He's dishing out hundreds of millions of our money to whoever he chooses.  Tens of thousands for Amanda Muscat,  Danjel Bogdanovic, and Rosianne Cutajar.  Millions to his business partner's company, Bonnici Brothers.  A water's edge restaurant for his friends, Paul and Mark Gauci, tal-Gedida.  Public land for friendly developers who provided Silvio Schembri his district offices. Illegally acquired land at Tigne handed over to the Zammit Tabonas.

Abela turned public institutions into his private toolset.  A police force that fails to investigate even the most blatant corruption. An Attorney General who defies the magistrate's recommendations and decides not to prosecute the people identified for prosecution. As for those institutions he can't fully control, Abela is putting them out of reach by introducing legislation denying citizens their right to request a magisterial inquiry.

Abela looks his strongest on the surface.  He's got the money, the power, the institutions under his control. The 30 tyrants who controlled Athens also seemed to have absolute control.  They had all the weapons, the wealth, complete authority.  They thought they were showing strength by ruthlessly eliminating critics and hoarding wealth.  Instead they created the perfect conditions for their overthrow.

This is the paradox of power - strength becomes weakness, control breeds its own instability. The more controlling the leader becomes, the more he accelerates his own demise. His visible excesses create a rising silent resentment.  His vicious attacks on the free press, his vile accusations that 90% of what the Shift publishes is fake have desperation written large all over them. The more he attempts to crush dissent, to stifle the truth the closer his undoing.

Abela still has all the power but he's become brittle.  He's cracking before our eyes.

Aristotle's key indicators of a leader's decline are all evident in Abela. When public resources are treated as his own personal property, when the country's wealth becomes his own, when public spaces become private, when public land is given away to developers, when the public is deprived of its own shore, the end is near.   When the people's money serves only the leader and Labour's friends - the Bonnici brothers, TEC Ltd, Joseph Portelli, Tal-Gedida, Zammit Tabona, Vitals, Steward, Yorgen Fenech, and so many more - time is running out.

Aristotle identified another indicator of imminent collapse - when the leader ignores the laws, customs and virtues of the nation and forgets the promises made. Abela promised to introduce legislation to stop development until appeals are decided.  He's reneged on his promise because he's more interested in enriching his developer friends than keeping his word with the people.

He's abandoned Labour's empty promise of meritocracy and fairness. When Ian Borg was caught meddling in the driving licensing scandal, Abela claimed he was doing his job. Contracts are not awarded through a fair and competitive process but through direct orders, excluding any competition. Key positions are filled not through interviews but by direct appointments to persons of trust, most of whom lack the most basic competence, expertise or qualifications. Labour's mantra is "it's not just diplomas and degrees".

The most critical indicator is when public dissatisfaction flares up.  It's not just the volume of complaints that matters. It's that protest shifts from specific issues to fundamental questions of justice and fairness.  It's not about Fort Chambray or Jean Paul Sofia.  It's about far more basic issues - it's about glaring injustice and unfairness. Why is Amanda Muscat paid 78,000 euro? Why does Ian Borg get to keep his illegal swimming pool? How come Joseph Portelli's illegal developments still get a power and water supply? Why is Joseph Cuschieri heading Project Green?  Why is Johann Buttigieg back at the planning authority?  Why are we paying for Michelle Muscat's car and drivers? Why are we paying Joseph Muscat's office, printer and paper? Why is Keith Schembri still getting government contracts? Why does Robert Abela's office helper get 11 government jobs?

Aristotle was right. He recognised that when leaders become disconnected from the values they're meant to protect - fairness, meritocracy, decency and justice - they're finished. And is there anybody more disconnected from reality than the ultrawealthy lawyer who escapes on his luxury yacht at every opportunity and who spends the rest of his time developing luxury guesthouses in Xewkija or sprawling villas in Zejtun when he should be running the country?