Maltatoday's recent poll delivered a knockout blow. Gozo's electorate has swung decidedly against Labour by a massive 15.3% since the last general election in 2022. That huge shift should really worry Labour. Gozo has always been the country's bellwether - and now it's flipped blue.
Yet the initial excitement at the incredible turn of fortune for the PN should be tampered by a deeper analysis of what's going on in Gozo. The PN has a staggering 20% lead amongst those aged over 65 years of age. It's leading Labour by 10% amongst those aged between 51 and 65 years of age. But amongst 16-35 year olds Labour still leads. Labour leads only by a whisker, a miserable 3%, but the fact that Labour is still ahead amongst Gen Z is perplexing. It must also be frustrating for the Opposition - it has yet to convince Gozo's youngest voters that it's time they abandon the ramshackle bandwagon that is Labour and give the PN a chance.
Gozo's pensioners report an improving standard of living more than any other segment of the population. Out of all age groups, pensioners are the most likely to report that their life is getting better. Yet amongst that group, Bernard Grech is trusted far more than Robert Abela. And support for the PN is miles ahead of Labour.
Now contrast that with 16 to 35 year olds. That group has the highest proportion of people who feel their standard of living is getting worse. The majority of them have practically lived their entire adult life under Labour. They're the ones who feel they have the worst standard of living. Yet more of them still support Labour than the Opposition. Yes, it's only one third who support Labour but the PN still lags 3% behind. Even worse, Robert Abela still enjoys a 35% approval rating in this age group despite his atrocious decisions and erratic behaviour. Why should a third of the most rebellious age group still back a leader who is such an imminent threat to our democracy? Maybe it's because that one third don't really value democracy.
According to a BBC channel 4 poll, over half of 13 to 27 year olds in the UK can't see the point of democracy. They feel elections, parliament and the rule of law are just a waste of time. 52% of them think that "the UK would be a better place if a strong leader was in charge who does not have to bother with parliament and elections". Even more worrying 33% think the army should be in charge. Maybe we should make Colonel Alex Dalli Prime Minister. He's a strongman and an army man.
But Gozo's youth are very different from those in the UK - they're far smarter. And that's why the vast majority of them won't back Robert Abela. Only 35% of Gozo's youth still believe a strongman who doesn't waste his time with democratic norms is the best leader for our country.
The majority of Gozitan pensioners now wholeheartedly back the PN. They know what damage a strongman can do. They've lived through Mintoff's 1980s, a dark period of violence, repression and intimidation. They witnessed the suppression of Eastern bloc populations behind the iron curtain. Those Gozitan pensioners came out in support of the Polish Solidarnosc. That generation thinks the intellectual argument for democracy has been definitely won. Sadly they're very wrong.
There's still a third of 16 to 35 year olds, possibly their own grandchildren, who still back Labour. Maybe because they didn't experience the violent repression of Labour's golden 1980s. They haven't clicked that authoritarianism is on an entirely different scale of bad. Even the worst dictators know that - which is why they pretend to run democracies. Putin, Lukashenko, Maduro, Aliyev all pretend to run elections. They go through the whole charade simply so they can claim they're democratically elected leaders with the overwhelming support of their populations. Why do they bother? Because they know that their own people yearn for democracy. Their people know how brutal authoritarianism is. It seems a third of our youngest citizens don't.
In Gozo only a minority of our Gen Z are anything like those in the UK. Only 20% couldn't be bothered with elections and wouldn't vote. Only 35% would rather have a strongman at the helm. No strongman in history turned out to be a good idea. The empty promises of meritocracy and transparency of one strongman swiftly transformed into cronyism and secrecy. Freedoms and rights quickly morphed into intimidation and repression. Maybe that third of Gozitan youth are disappointed with our democracy. But to yearn for a narcissistic strongman is suicidal.
How can that third of Gozo's youth still back Robert Abela even as he robs them of their rights? How can the most idealistic segment of our society back a party whose overriding priority is economic growth at all costs? How can they keep supporting the party that brought rampant overdevelopment to their beloved island? Can't they see Labour's destruction of their heritage and environment simply to appease Labour's wealthy developer donors?
The problem with autocrats is they're destructive. But a third of Gozo's youth don't seem to appreciate that. Did nobody teach them what devastation Europe's 20th century dictators wrought on the world? Yes, democracy is messy, complex, tiresome and slow. But as Winston Churchill put it, it may be the worst system, but democracy is still miles better than all the rest. It's certainly better than yielding power to one pampered rich kid who stops at nothing to get his way. Robert Abela is now planning to tear up our electoral districts to ensure he stays in power.
Democracy has one major redeeming grace - it gives us the power to sack any aspiring autocrat. For that alone we should fight to preserve it. And for that alone those 35% of Gozo's youth should emulate their grandparents - by doing their duty and turning up to vote for those who will defend democracy and against those who dare wreck it.