MaltaToday's post-budget survey shows the Labour Party (PL) now leads the Nationalist Party (PN) by an estimated 7,600 votes - slightly down from October's 8,400-vote margin - indicating that the 2026 budget failed to deliver any meaningful boost.

The budget for 2026 was labelled as the "best budget ever" by Prime Minister Robert Abela, but the survey results indicate that this has not had much of an effect on the voting population, according to the survey.

Conducted over the past two weeks among 799 respondents and based on an estimated turnout of 81%, the survey places PL support at 48.7% and PN support at 46.1%. Third parties collectively register 5.2%. The three-point gap between the two main parties falls within the survey's margin of error (+/-3.5 points), underscoring just how narrow the race remains.

Regionally, Labour continues to solidify its dominance in its southern strongholds but suffers losses in other districts. The party's main setback is the rising number of its 2022 voters who now intend to abstain. Non-voters among PL's 2022 base have grown steadily - 6.7% in June, 9.9% in October, and 11.8% now - signalling possible dissatisfaction among more moderate Labour supporters. While Labour's recent efforts appear to have energized its core, they may have simultaneously alienated voters who once backed the party but are now disengaging.

At the same time, PN is showing signs of renewed energy under its new leader, Alex Borg. The share of PN's 2022 voters who now plan to abstain has dropped sharply, from 10.5% in June to just 5% in November. PN now retains 86.8% of its 2022 voters, surpassing Labour's retention rate of 78.9%. This marks a reversal of the pattern seen earlier in the year, when Labour enjoyed stronger internal loyalty.

Vote shifting also slightly favours the PN. While 7.9% of Labour's 2022 voters are now choosing the Nationalists, only 5.4% of PN voters are moving toward Labour. However, PN's gains are partially offset by higher leakage to third parties - 2.8% of its past voters - compared with Labour's 1.4%. More importantly, PN is attracting a greater share of 2022 non-voters: 17.8% now say they would vote PN, compared with just 7.7% who would vote Labour. This suggests that under Borg, PN is reconnecting with previously disengaged voters.

Trust ratings between the two leaders have also tightened. Prime Minister Robert Abela remains ahead with 45.2% trust, while Borg registers 35.3%. Despite Abela still maintaining a solid lead, the gap has narrowed from 13 points in October to 10 points now. The budget debate appears to have caused only minor shifts - Abela has dropped two points, while Borg has gained one.

Overall, the survey paints a picture of a political landscape still in flux. Labour's challenge lies primarily in rising abstention among its past supporters, while the PN benefits from a more motivated base and growing appeal among former non-voters. Despite heightened scrutiny, Borg appears to be sustaining the momentum gained during his leadership honeymoon. For now, neither party has succeeded in using the budget to break the deadlock, leaving Malta's political contest as tight as ever.