A new election survey by statistician Vincent Marmarà has shown little movement in the electoral race, with the governing Labour Party maintaining a lead of around 29,000 votes over the opposition Nationalist Party during the third week of the 2026 general election campaign.

The survey, conducted between May 7 and May 13 among 1,200 respondents, found that 48.9% of respondents said they would vote Labour, while 37.1% backed the Nationalist Party. Another 3.3% said they would vote for ADPD or other parties, while 10.7% remained undecided.

After applying a statistical model to account for respondents who declined to answer, the projected result rises to 52.9% for Labour and 42.9% for the PN, with other parties on 4.2%.

The survey indicates that Labour's advantage currently ranges between 9% and 11%, depending on different turnout and undecided voter scenarios. The estimated gap translates to between 26,000 and 32,000 votes in Labour's favour, with the average standing at around 29,000 votes - unchanged from the previous survey published last week.

The findings suggest that despite the intensity of the campaign, there has so far been limited movement between the two main parties. According to the survey analysis, shifts towards one party are largely being balanced out by movements towards the other, resulting in a relatively stable electoral picture.

The survey also examined leadership preferences and found a clear advantage for Prime Minister Robert Abela over PN leader Alex Borg.

Among voters who backed Labour in the 2022 election, 86.9% said they preferred Abela as prime minister, while only 3% opted for Borg. Among 2022 PN voters, Borg secured the support of 80.1%, while 3.7% preferred Abela.

After statistical adjustments were applied, the final leadership figures showed Abela preferred by 46.9% of respondents, compared to 32.7% for Borg. Another 8.6% said they preferred neither candidate, while 8.9% remained undecided.

This gives Abela a leadership advantage of 14.2 percentage points over Borg.

The survey was carried out by telephone and mobile phone interviews and had a confidence level of 95% with a margin of error of ±2.8%. Researchers said the sample was calibrated according to Maltese demographics and voting patterns from the 2022 election, while a multiple imputation technique was used to account for non-responses.