Last week, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar announced that Malta has agreed to recognise all Israeli travel documents, not only regular Israeli passports. This is known in Hebrew as Teudat Ma'avar, or laissez-passer, and is issued to certain Israeli citizens who do not qualify for a standard Israeli passport. With the new concession, holders of this alternative travel document can now travel to Malta under the same visa-free conditions that apply to regular Israeli passport holders.

This is a positive development for generating new economic and touristic relationships with Israel. It comes close to new political developments, as the country next month will elect a new Knesset, its Parliament. It could usher in a new era of ethical and mutually beneficial business relations for the war-battered country.

Some may ask if there will be a change in premiership. One question looms: will Binyamin Netanyahu remain prime minister? Currently, he leads a right-wing religious coalition government that took office in late 2022, holding a slim majority in Parliament. Upon approval of the election results, the new cabinet will assume its role, since the intricate electoral system prioritises the ability to form a workable majority over simply rewarding the largest single party. Many times, there will be post-election negotiations that frequently determine the ultimate prime minister and the character of the government more than the raw vote totals. Deadlines create pressure but also allow time for complex bargaining among ideologically diverse partners.

This framework explains why Israeli politics often features prolonged post-election uncertainty, shifting alliances, and governments that reflect carefully negotiated compromises rather than a single clear electoral winner.

The Knesset was dissolved in mid-July after completing a full four-year term, and campaigning is underway for the 27 October vote, which will elect the next Knesset and determine the government. Some opinions hold that any future broader opposition is often closer to, or able to reach, a potential majority depending on smaller parties and post-election deals.

One may be surprised at how even Arab parties are usually projected to garner around 10-11 seats out of the maximum 120 seats. Many commentators note that Israeli politics is highly fragmented, so the final seat distribution, and especially coalition negotiations after the election, will matter more than the raw party rankings.

What is so different this time as regards the election? The answer is that this election is widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership amid heavy public anger over the security failures of the Hamas attack on 7 October 2023.

Furthermore, Netanyahu also has an ongoing corruption trial, yet he has confirmed he intends to run again and lead Likud. Recent opinion polls consistently show challenges for Netanyahu's bloc, since Likud is often neck-and-neck with, or trailing, the new centrist party Yashar, led by former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot.

Netanyahu's coalition is frequently projected to fall well short of the 61 seats needed for a majority, with some expecting a range of around 48-53 seats. The broader opposition, including Eisenkot's party, Naftali Bennett's grouping, and others, is often closer to or above a potential majority, depending on the exact configuration and whether smaller parties clear the electoral threshold.

Head-to-head preference polls have also shown Eisenkot leading Netanyahu as preferred prime minister in some surveys. Forming a coalition in Israel's fragmented multi-party system is a complex matter and can take weeks or months, yet Netanyahu has a long track record as a political survivor and deal-maker. Even if his bloc falls short, unexpected results, shifts in smaller parties, or post-election negotiations could still create pathways for him to return.

Readers may ask what the factors working against him are. These may include the attacks by Hamas in October 2023 and Netanyahu's long and inconclusive wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, which have damaged his standing and that of Likud, his right-wing party. Other factors include war fatigue, security accountability demands, and a desire for change among significant parts of the electorate.

Factors in his favour that could help him include his base loyalty, campaign skill, security messaging, and potential fragmentation on the opposition side.

Currently, Netanyahu's governing coalition has lost support and is on track to fall short of the 61 seats needed for a majority. If enough Opposition parties join together after the election to form a coalition, they could push Netanyahu and his allies, the far-right and ultra-religious parties, out of power.

In a complex voting system, one appreciates the difference that voters will not cast their ballot directly for Netanyahu or one of his challengers. Instead, they will vote for party lists, some of which combine candidates from more than one party. New parties may yet be formed, and some are expected to split or merge their lists. They can do this up to seven weeks before the election, when registration closes.

These changes will have a big influence on the campaign's dynamics and polling trends in the final stage of the race. A list needs to win only 3.25% of the national vote to receive any seats. It is good to note that any votes for lists which fail to cross the threshold will be lost, which could affect the balance between the blocs.

At the final stage, when the 120 Knesset seats have been allocated, the president will consult the parliamentary parties to decide which leader should be given the task of forming a majority coalition. Negotiations could take several weeks, and even months, before they produce a new government.

Voter views ahead of Israel's October election are shaped by frustration, security concerns, and deep polarisation, yet no single narrative dominates. What one can say, based on polling summaries and reporting, is that Israeli voters are divided into several distinct camps with different priorities and emotional drivers.

In the background to this important election, one is expecting that Israel's economy is recovering, with 2026 growth projected between 3.3% and 4% - basically equal to our current performance - but the recovery is not guaranteed and depends heavily on regional stability, labour supply, and policy choices after the election.

George M. Mangion is a senior partner at PKF Malta