The centre-right EPP group of which PN MEPs for part of has pulled ahead of the centre-left S&D group in the latest PollWatch2014 prediction of the outcome of the 2014 European Parliament elections. Today the EPP is forecast to win 222 seats, and the S&D Group 209.

The S&D group had held a narrow lead over the EPP since the start of the PollWatch2014 prediction series two months ago. The first forecast, published on 19 February, had the EPP on 200 seats and S&D on 217.
 
There has been a significant rise in support for EPP parties in Poland, perhaps related to insecurity as a result of the crisis in Ukraine. EPP parties have also made gains in France and picked up one more seat in several other member states. Meanwhile, S&D parties have declined slightly in Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, France and Greece.
 
Nevertheless, the difference between these two groups is still reasonably small given the margins of error. Based on 1000 simulations of the outcome, the researchers estimate that that there is a 25% probability that S&D will be larger than EPP.
 
Overall, the three centrist political groups – EPP, S&D, ALDE – would be down considerably on their current standing: from 72% of MEPs in the current Parliament, to 65% in the new Parliament. Of the remaining MEPs, our current forecast has 12% for the two other groups on the left (GUE and G/EFA), 10% for the two other groups on the right (ECR and EFD), and just under 13% who are not currently members of any political group, and who are mostly on the radical right. 
 
The latest forecast suggests that Le Pen and Wilders will have enough MEPs from enough member states to form a group: with approximately 38 MEPs from 7 member states. This forecast is based on the 5 other national parties who have suggested that they will join the French FN and Dutch PVV: Austrian FPÖ, Belgian VB, Italian LN, Slovak SNS, and Swedish SD. The make-up of this prospective group has not yet been finalised, however.
 
The PollWatch2014 model was developed by three leading political scientists, Kevin Cunningham, Simon Hix and Michael Marsh. In 2009, the final forecast correctly predicted 720 of the then 736 seats won by each political group (a 98% success rate), and 660 of the seats won by each national party (a 90% success rate).