24.9 per cent said they were undecided, while 9.2 per cent said they did not want to answer the question. 7.1 per cent of the respondents said they were not going to vote in the forthcoming EP elections. AD support stood at 4.8 per cent, while the support for other parties and/or independent candidates was less than one per cent each.
When eliminating those who refused to answer, the undecided, and those who said they would not vote in the EP election, the results show that the majority of respondents (51.2 per cent) would vote for PN. This is followed by 38.2 per cent who said they would vote for MLP. 8.2 per cent said their vote would go to AD.
66.2 per cent of those who had voted for the PN in the 2003 general election said they would vote for PN EP candidates. The cross tabulation shows that 8.2 per cent of those who had voted PN in last year’s election will now vote for AD. This trend is also confirmed by the data, which shows that 70.6 per cent of those who said they would vote for AD in the EP elections had voted PN in 2003. Those who said they voted Labour in 2003 and will vote for MLP in the EP elections were 80.7 per cent. Respondents who said they voted MLP in 2003 and would now vote AD comprised 0.6 per cent.
The percentage of respondents who said they voted PN in the 2003 election and would vote MLP in the EP election was 1.7 per cent. The percentage that voted MLP in 2003 and PN in this year’s election was nil.
26.7 per cent of those who said they were undecided with regard to the upcoming EP election said they had voted PN in the last general election, while 10.8 per cent had voted MLP.
59.9 per cent of those who voted ‘yes’ in last year’s EU referendum will vote for PN candidates in the EP elections. Those who voted ‘no’ in the referendum and who will vote for MLP candidates stand at 75.3 per cent. One can notice that 7.4 per cent of those who voted in favour of Malta’s accession into the EU will be voting for AD in the EP election.
51.2 per cent of the respondents said they will vote for one party, while 21.9 per cent said they will vote for more than one party in the EP elections. 19.8 per cent said they were undecided and 7.1 per cent refused to answer.
49.6 per cent consider the EU accession as a positive development, while 21.4 per cent consider it a negative one. 17.7 per cent said they were undecided and 11.3 per cent said they would wait for future results before deciding whether it is positive or negative.
Survey methodology
This survey was carried out by Malta Polls on behalf of TV programme ‘Xarabank’. The survey on “The Maltese and the European Parliament Elections” was carried out between 9am and 8pm last week between 23 and 26 May. The survey questionnaires were administered by phone interviews and the fieldwork of this survey was done by the call-centre ‘Dial-It’.
Sampling
Random sampling was used in this survey whereby a representative sample of 821 respondents was earmarked as the sample size, and was selected from Maltacom’s telephone directory. A total of 1,100 people were contacted for this survey, out of which 289 (or 26 per cent) refused to participate.
The estimated margin of error based on a sample size of 821 was around +/- 3 per cent.
Standard age cohorts were also included in the survey. The results for age groups and gender were weighed with the relevant clustering as resulting from the latest Demographic Review.
The results
European Parliament voting trends
The respondents were asked “Lil liema partit/ kandidat ser tivvota fl-elezzjoni ghall-Parlament Ewropew?” The highest percentage of respondents, 30.1 per cent, said they would vote for PN candidates, while 22.5 per cent said they would give their vote to the MLP candidates. 24.9 per cent said they were undecided, while 9.2 per cent said they did not want to answer the question.
7.1 per cent of the respondents said they were not going to vote . AD support stood at 4.8 per cent, while the support for other parties and/or independent candidates was less than one per cent each.
If one were to eliminate those who refused to answer, the undecided, and those who said they would not vote in these EP elections, the results show that the majority of respondents (51.2 per cent) would vote for PN. This is followed by 38.2 per cent who said they would vote for MLP. 8.2 per cent said their vote would go for AD. The candidate standing on the hunters and trappers’ ticket (Lino Farrugia) garnered 0.9 per cent of the respondents’ support, while Norman Lowell’s Imperium Europa recorded a 0.7 per cent response rate. The Alfa Party of Emmy Bezzina and John Zammit obtained 0.5 per cent, while other independent candidates got 0.3 per cent.
2003 General Election voting
patterns
The respondents were asked: “Lil min ivvutajt fl-ahhar elezzjoni generali?” The following were the results:
When cross tabulating these results with the respondents’ voting patterns in the EP election, it emerges that 26.7 per cent of those who said they were undecided with regard to the upcoming EP election said they had voted PN in the last general election, while 10.8 per cent had voted MLP.
When seeing the data from the point of view of how people voted in the last general election, 66.2 per cent of those who had voted for the PN in 2003 said they would vote for PN EP candidates. The cross tabulation shows that 8.2 per cent of those who had voted PN in last year’s election will now vote for AD.
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This trend is also confirmed by the data, which shows that 70.6 per cent of those who said they would vote for AD in the EP elections had voted PN in 2003.
With regard to MLP, those who said they voted Labour in 2003 and will vote for MLP in the EP elections were 80.7 per cent. Respondents who said they voted MLP in 2003 and would now vote AD amounted to 0.6 per cent
The percentage of respondents who said that they voted PN in the 2003 election and would vote MLP in the EP election was 1.7 per cent. The percentage who voted MLP in 2003 and PN in this year’s election was nil.
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2003 EU Referendum voting
patterns
The respondents were asked: “Kif kont ivvutajt fir-Referendum dwar l-ishubija ta’ Malta fl-Unjoni Ewropeja?” The following were the results:
When cross tabulating this result with the respondents’ replies on the EP elections, it emerges that 36.9 per cent of those who said they were undecided with regards to the EP elections had voted in favour of Malta’s EU membership, while 12.5 per cent said they had voted ‘no’. 32 per cent of those who said they will not vote in this year’s elections said they had voted ‘yes’ in the 2003 referendum, compared to 24 per cent who said they voted ‘no’.
When analysing the data from the perspective of last year’s EU referendum vote, one notices that 59.9 per cent of those who voted ‘yes’ last year will vote for PN candidates in the EP election. Those who voted ‘no’ in the referendum and who will vote for MLP candidates came to 75.3 per cent. One can notice that 7.4 per cent of those who voted in favour of Malta’s accession into the EU will be voting for AD in the EP election.
Voting for one or more parties
The respondents were asked: “Fil-vot tieghek fl-elezzjoni ghall-Parlament Ewropew, se tivvota ghall-partit wiehed jew aktar minn wiehed?” The majority of respondents, 51.2 per cent, said they will vote for one party, while 21.9 per cent said they will vote for more than one party. 19.8 per cent said they were undecided and 7.1 per cent refused to answer.
Rating Malta’s EU accession
The respondents were asked this question: “Illum tqis is-shubija ta’ Malta fl-Unjoni Ewropeja bhala xi haga…” The majority (49.6 per cent) consider it a positive development, while 21.4 per cent a negative one. 17.7 per cent said they were undecided and 11.3 per cent said they would wait for future results before deciding whether it is positive or negative.
When cross tabulating this result with the EP election voting data, it becomes clear that the majority of those who will vote for PN candidates (92.5 per cent) think that EU accession is a positive thing (and only 1.9 per cent think it is a negative development). On the other hand, 56 per cent of those who will vote for MLP candidates think that it is a negative development (and 11.9 per cent think it is a positive one). 40.9 per cent of those who said they were undecided about the upcoming EP elections thought that EU accession was a positive development and 15.9 per cent said it was a negative one.