The Malta Independent 14 August 2026, Friday
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LEADER: A year of constant anxiety but the worst did not take place

Malta Independent Thursday, 27 December 2012, 10:49 Last update: about 14 years ago

It was a year of many alarms, of constant worries especially about the euro and, through it, about the stability of the EU.

It was a year of impending Grexits, announced time and again as imminent; a year that focused on the travails of Greece, a country that many times appeared on the edge of a cliff, and taking in far more punishment than one would have thought was possible for any country to take

And yet, at the end, Greece is still in the euro and the much-feared Grexit has not happened. Athens in turn delivered on its part of the bargain – more stinging austerity, economic reforms and a tight budget – all with the aim of cutting its massive debt burden to a more sustainable 124% of GDP by 2020.

Reflecting the change, Standard and Poor’s raised Greece’s sovereign debt rating by a massive six notches because of what it termed the “strong determination of ... (eurozone) member states to preserve Greek membership”.

As the year draws to a close, the focus shifts to other countries – Italy first of all because of the uncertainty regarding the upcoming February election. It would seem that once the situation reverts back to ordinary politics, the situation becomes intractable once again whereas with an unelected government led by Mario Monti, the country was taking sustainable steps to regain its competitiveness.

Spain too is a country deep in recession and with unemployment as high, or higher, than in Greece. It too was many times on the brink of asking for a bailout but has somehow held back even while its banking system is still in tatters.

The other countries who have asked for bailouts – from Ireland to Portugal – are doing well, with Ireland aiming to come out of the programme as early as next year.

This does not mean, however, that the rest of the eurozone is under balmy skies. Cyprus, is about to ask for a bailout and struggling hard against doing so.

The problem country is once again, and very predictably, France which last May chose a president who positioned himself as an antithesis of Angela Merkel – where she preached austerity, Francois Hollande preached growth.

So far, the only growth there has been was in the queues of those fleeing from France – not just the likes of Gerard Depardieu who fled to Belgium and surrendered his passport rather than pay the exorbitant taxes, but also businessmen and entrepreneurs of all kinds. The French government has very unwisely been making anti-business statements and investment is down all over the country.

Then there is the growing clamour in Britain for a referendum and a possible exit of Britain from the EU. This will be a battle for the coming years and may indeed lead to London becoming an offshore financial centre leaving a vacuum at the heart of Europe.

For a long time this year, the top levels of European governments have been working very hard to cope with the crisis, with meeting after meeting of the heads of government, the ministers of finance and the rest. But as the spreads decreased and the world turned its collective eyes elsewhere, the anxiety and indeed desperation of earlier months dissipated and a relaxed feeling came in instead.

So timelines got postponed again and again (the latest being about banking supervision) and matters remained still at the planning stage without resolution of the many disputes being found.

This inability to come to an agreement unless under pressure of something dramatic also spreads to coming to an agreement about what needs to be done to strengthen the euro and to keep the euro strong in any future crisis. It is now widely admitted the euro’s birth was a flawed one, but nothing strategic has been done to remedy that.

And yet, here we are, at the end of the year and none of the impending catastrophes has happened. Maybe we are all ending the year rather relaxed and laid-back. Maybe we will continue to muddle through. Or maybe we have not learned anything yet.

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