The Malta Independent 4 August 2020, Tuesday

Watch - Coronavirus: Current reproduction number in Malta is 0.35

Sunday, 12 July 2020, 07:30 Last update: about 22 days ago

Only two new cases of Coronavirus were recorded in the past week, bringing down the reproduction rate to just 0.35, statistician Vincent Marmara said in his weekly blog for The Malta Independent.

It was the same number as that registered the previous week, he said. The low ratio is confirmed also when one takes into consideration the number of swab tests that were carried out.


Taking a look at what is happening elsewhere, Marmara mentioned Brazil where the number of cases continues to grow, day after day. In the United States, the number reached a peak and seemed to stabilise, but in the last days a sharp increase was registered again.

This contrasts sharply with Italy, which in March and April was the European epicentre of the disease. Marmara said that here the numbers have continued to drop over the past week. The same goes for Spain, which also experienced heavy numbers in March and April, but which have dropped considerably in the past weeks.

England is also registering fewer cases than it did a few weeks ago, an indication that the numbers in many European countries are in decline when compared to other places around the world.

Marmara said Australia could be taken as an example to be followed closely, as it could give a clear indication as to what can happen in Europe later on, given that it’s winter time there.

He said that after experiencing the first way, Australia had a number of weeks in which the number of cases was negligible. But the numbers are growing again in the past few days as the country enters deep into winter.

Studies on seasonal influenza in Australia have always been highly indicative of the situation that later developed in Europe, Marmara said. What happens in Australia could enable us to plan ahead on what could happen when winter comes.


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