The Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission has recently published a study entitled “Regional Impact of Climate Change on European tourism demand”. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the EU policymaking process.

This JRC technical study examines the potential impact of climate change on tourism demand within the context of the debate shaping the 2030 EU Agenda for Tourism. The development of touristic destinations must essentially consider the impact of climate change.

This is a debate which is unfortunately absent locally. In Malta, both the tourism industry as well as the Malta Tourism Authority (MTA) are only interested in numbers, more than anything else.  This is evidenced by the Deloitte report on the industry’s capacity, published some months ago. It is pertinent to remember that the Deloitte report points out that a projected supply of touristic accommodation, close to 5 million tourists annually would be required to ensure the sector’s long-term profitability (at an average 80 per cent occupancy throughout the year).  Tourism planning at its worst possible. Pure madness!

Land use planning concessions, left right and centre, have been dished out to attain this massive over-development. The tourism industry with government’s complicity has planned for this massive over-capacity, in the process ignoring the reality on the ground.

The JRC study emphasises that “the last three decades of research have failed to prepare the (tourism) sector for the net-zero transition and the climate disruption that will transform tourism in the 2050-time horizon.”

The study finds a clear north-south pattern in tourism demand changes: “northern regions benefitting from climate change and southern regions facing significant reductions in tourism demand.”

Southern coastal regions are projected to lose a significant amount of summer tourists, around 10 per cent, in the warmer climate scenarios considered by the study. This compares to a projected significant increase of approximately 5 per cent in the Northern European coastal regions.

The projected shift in tourism is not only regional: it would also be seasonal.

Such studies are indicative. However, they should be taken note of and have a bearing on the essential planning which is required if we are to be as prepared as can be for the climate changes which are on our doorstep. Matters may possibly even turn out to be far worse than what is being projected! Hence the need for more focused studies on what lies in store.

Both the industry and the Tourism Ministry are oblivious to all this. They are still euphoric on the “post-Covid record number of tourists”, ignoring the changes on the horizon.

Climate change is impacting everything, not just tourism. It is already impacting water resources, the infrastructure, coastal protection, energy, biodiversity, agriculture as well as health.

Only recently we read in the media that at a recent informal meeting of EU Health Ministers held at the Canary Islands, Health Minister Chris Fearne raised the impact of climate change on health. He was reported as having emphasised the need to consider, in depth, the impacts which climate change is having on our health systems. Fearne is obviously planning ahead, not just on the impacts of the climate on health planning. His radar is most obviously focused on the composition of the EU Commission which this time next year will be in the process of being screened by the EU Parliament and its various committees.

Whatever the motivation on the importance of climate change, it is imperative that we plan ahead, definitely beyond the immediate future.

Unfortunately, the Ministry responsible for climate change hasn’t got an inkling of all this. It should be leading the way in discussing and planning how best to adapt to climate change and to mitigate its impacts. Instead, it is focused on the unofficial electoral campaign for the EU Parliament.

Adapting to climate change will require substantial behavioural change which successive governments have been reluctant to encourage through adequate policy initiatives. Climate change will not go away. We can only adapt to the change and seek to implement the required mitigation measures. Without behavioural change we are doomed.

It is about time that we act, before it is too late.

Carmel Cacopardo is a former Chairperson of ADPD